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Culture & Society
Meteorologists warn that a powerful climate phenomenon known as 'Super El Niño' could make the summer of 2026 the hottest on record, with a 25% chance of formation between June and August.
Meteorologists have warned that a powerful climate phenomenon known as 'Super El Niño' could make the summer of 2026 the hottest on record. The El Niño phenomenon is defined as a natural climate pattern that occurs due to the rise in surface water temperatures in the Pacific Ocean, leading to heating of the air above it and causing global climate disruptions such as heatwaves, droughts, and storms.
'Super El Niño' differs from the regular one only in its intensity, as it is defined as an ocean warming of 4 degrees Celsius or more above the normal average, while the regular one is less than that. It is noted that currently, the Pacific Ocean temperature is 2 to 3 degrees above its normal average, meaning conditions are ripe for the phenomenon to develop.
Forecasts indicate a 62% probability of a regular 'El Niño' forming, and a 25% probability of a 'Super El Niño' forming between June and August. If the 'Super El Niño' forecasts materialize, 2026 is likely to be the hottest year in recorded history.
Although the most severe impacts are usually concentrated in the Pacific Ocean and the Americas, Europe will not be immune to these changes. In southern Europe, 'El Niño' years are associated with hotter and drier summers, meaning an increased risk of heatwaves in Spain, Greece, and Portugal. As for Britain, El Niño does not directly control its weather, but it affects broader atmospheric patterns, which could lead to higher-than-normal warmth, but also increases the risk of heavy rain and thunderstorms in summer.
Asia also faces the risk of a strong El Niño phenomenon that could cause three simultaneous disasters: increased energy demand, reduced hydropower generation, and destruction of agricultural crops. Climate change further complicates the picture, as scientists believe that global warming could make El Niño's impacts more severe; combining an already warm planet with the El Niño phenomenon produces more extreme weather.
It is worth noting that the last time a 'Super El Niño' occurred was in 2015, causing floods, droughts, and wildfires that affected tens of millions around the world, making preparation for this phenomenon critically important. The strongest 'Super El Niño' ever recorded was in 1997-1998, causing severe drought and devastating wildfires in Indonesia that swept through millions of hectares.
