African Development Bank Warns of $10-20 Billion Economic Losses from "Super El Niño"

The African Development Bank has issued a warning that the anticipated "super El Niño" phenomenon could inflict economic damages ranging from $10 billion to $20 billion on African countries impacted by the event. The bank also highlighted increased risks of mass migration waves and worsening food and water crises.

Anthony Nyong, Director of Climate Change and Green Growth at the bank, told Reuters in an interview that the phenomenon might reduce the GDP of the most affected countries by an average of 1% to 2%. He noted that these figures represent the first assessment from a major international development institution regarding the consequences of the phenomenon.

El Niño is a natural climatic event caused by an abnormal rise in sea surface temperatures in the tropical Pacific Ocean, leading to widespread changes in global weather patterns, including droughts, floods, and heatwaves.

Meteorological experts have cautioned that the ongoing increase in Pacific Ocean temperatures may cause El Niño to become one of the strongest on record, heightening the likelihood of severe droughts, floods, and storms across extensive regions of Africa.

Nyong emphasized that the impacts of El Niño will extend beyond food and water security, affecting public finances and the banking sector. He warned of potential significant damage to infrastructure and increased pressure on heavily indebted countries.

He added that governments might fall into a "climate finance trap," where limited resources force them to divert budgets from sectors such as health, education, and infrastructure to disaster response.

In May, the African Development Bank projected Africa's economic growth at 4.2% for the current year and 4.4% for 2027. However, these forecasts were issued before the emergence of predictions about the formation of a "super El Niño."

Nyong indicated that the continent might require up to $100 billion in funding this year to address the effects of the phenomenon. He confirmed the bank's readiness to restructure existing projects and assist countries in securing additional financing from international institutions, including the Green Climate Fund.