Economy
FAO Expert: Global Coffee Shortage Talk Premature Amid El Niño
FAO markets expert Fabio Palmeri said it is premature to speak of a global coffee shortage due to intensifying El Niño, with impacts dependent on its severity, duration, and weather developments in major producing countries.
Fabio Palmeri, a markets and trade specialist at the UN Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO), stated that discussions about a global coffee shortage are premature despite the intensification of the El Niño climate phenomenon.
Regional production concerns
Palmeri noted that primary concerns center on Robusta-producing regions in Southeast Asia, while outlooks for major Arabica-producing countries remain mixed.
Key producing countries under watch
The effect on global output will hinge on the intensity and duration of El Niño, as well as how anomalous weather patterns unfold over the coming months in Brazil, Vietnam, Colombia, and Indonesia — the world’s leading coffee-producing nations.
Market availability factors
He emphasized that the impact on global coffee availability will depend not only on production dynamics in those countries but also on harvest outcomes in other producing nations, existing stockpiles, and worldwide demand.
El Niño’s defining characteristic
El Niño is marked by an abnormal rise in sea surface temperatures across the central and eastern equatorial Pacific Ocean.
Earlier, Palmeri reported that the likelihood of El Niño strengthening in late 2026 and early 2027 exceeds 90%, a development that could negatively affect global coffee crops.
