Strait of Hormuz Breathes Again: Gulf Crude Flows Rebound

Data from Kpler showed that total crude oil exports from major Middle Eastern producers rebounded this September (Aylul), reaching 16.328 million barrels per day, marking the highest level since the outbreak of the US-Iran war in February (Shubat), supported by increased Gulf shipments and the recovery of navigation through the Strait of Hormuz.

Preliminary data revealed that this recovery came following the resumption of export flows through the Strait of Hormuz, estimated at approximately 9.719 million barrels per day this month, coinciding with Saudi Arabia redirecting part of its exports toward the Gulf following damage to the East-West pipeline leading to the Yanbu port on the Red Sea, according to Reuters.

Despite this regional rebound, estimates indicate that exports remain lower by approximately 3.2 million barrels per day compared to pre-conflict levels in February (Shubat), which stood at 19.513 million barrels per day at that time, according to Reuters.

This total includes shipments transiting the Strait of Hormuz, ship-to-ship transfers in the Gulf of Oman, exports coming from ports in Fujairah and the Sultanate of Oman located outside the strait, as well as shipments available via the Red Sea. Kpler noted in its memo that the region's total exports remain approximately 20% below pre-crisis levels.

On the production and export front, data cited by Reuters indicates that Saudi Arabia is on track to ship approximately 5.4 million barrels per day in September (Aylul), compared to 2.446 million barrels per day in August (Ab).

In this context, shipments transported through the vital Ras Tanura oil port surged to approximately 3.25 million barrels per day, up from 929 thousand barrels per day in the previous month, although they remain below February (Shubat) levels of 6.411 million barrels per day.

According to Reuters, data showed the departure of 19 very large crude carriers loaded with Saudi crude through the Strait of Hormuz during the past week, excluding any vessels that crossed the strait with their Automatic Identification Systems turned off to avoid detection.

It is worth noting that before the crisis erupted, the Strait of Hormuz received approximately 125 major commercial ships daily, a vital passage through which about 20% of global crude oil and liquefied natural gas supplies pass.