After the UNIFIL Mandate Ends... What Is the Future of Peacekeeping?

The Arab Center for Research and Policy Studies in Beirut released "From the UN Umbrella to the European Role: What Is the Future of Peacekeeping in Southern Lebanon After the End of UNIFIL's Mandate?", concluding that the most probable scenario for the future international presence in southern Lebanon following the expiration of the United Nations Interim Force in Lebanon (UNIFIL) on December 31, 2026, is a transition to a mission led by the European Union.

The analysis noted that this hypothetical mission would continue stability maintenance and support for the Lebanese Army, provided it is linked to a Lebanese and international consensus on its mandate and authority, emphasizing that the end of UNIFIL’s mandate is not merely the conclusion of a decades-long UN mission, but also opens the door to redefining the security architecture in southern Lebanon amid rapidly evolving regional and international dynamics.

Mandate Transformations and Resolution 2790

The analysis pointed out that UNIFIL’s tasks, established in 1978 under resolutions 425 and 426 and expanded after the July 2006 war under resolution 1701 to include monitoring the cessation of hostilities and supporting the deployment of the Lebanese Army south of the Litani River, have faced fundamental questions following developments in the Gaza war in 2023 and escalating confrontations between Israel and Hezbollah, as well as the ongoing Israeli occupation of areas in the south.

It highlighted that United Nations Security Council Resolution 2790, adopted in August 2025, extended UNIFIL’s mandate for the final time until the end of 2026, with a phased reduction of its forces and their gradual withdrawal through consultations with the Lebanese government, alongside enhanced international support for the Lebanese Army and calls for the withdrawal of Israeli forces from positions they still occupy.

The European Proposal and Regional and International Positions

The analysis reported on a recent German proposal advocating for the establishment of a European mission to succeed UNIFIL and prevent any security vacuum in the south, backed by a trilateral desire from Germany, France, and Italy to maintain direct involvement in the Lebanese file. It also examined the French-Italian proposal involving a European force overseeing security arrangements.

The analysis shed light on the balance of power and divergent positions regarding the new mission:

- Israel and the United States: Israel demands stricter arrangements to meet its security requirements, while Washington leans toward supporting mechanisms with stricter enforcement of Resolution 1701.

- Official Lebanese position: insists that the Lebanese Army should be the sole authority responsible for security in the south, and that any international presence should be limited to supporting and assisting state institutions within the framework of Resolution 1701 without replacing or supplanting them.

- Hezbollah’s position: the analysis suggests Hezbollah is likely to reject any force aimed at disarming it or imposing arrangements targeting it directly, though it may engage positively with a mission focused on consolidating the ceasefire, supporting the state, and reducing escalation—provided it does not become a tool of military or political pressure.

Legal and Security Challenges

The analysis noted that shifting from the UN umbrella to a European framework faces several obstacles, including:

1. Securing international legitimacy and clearly defining the mandate.

2. Ensuring full coordination with the Lebanese Army and preventing role duplication.

3. Avoiding internal Lebanese divisions and external pressures.

The center warned that any expansion of the new force’s powers could increase the risk of it becoming a direct party in the conflict, stressing that the mission’s success hinges on gaining both Lebanese and international acceptance, not just military capabilities.

Possible Scenarios for the Next Phase

The analysis outlined three scenarios depicting southern Lebanon’s trajectory after 2026:

- Scenario one (most likely): Transition to a European mission tasked with monitoring the cessation of hostilities, supporting the Lebanese Army, and contributing to the implementation of Resolution 1701.

- Scenario two: UNIFIL’s mission ends without a viable international or European alternative, increasing the likelihood of escalation and further weakening the ground security situation.

- Scenario three (most sensitive): Granting the European force broad and direct authority over Hezbollah’s arms file—a move facing strong domestic opposition and high risks of resistance.