Global Food Prices Surge: Will Lebanon Escape the New Wave of Inflation?

The Syndicate of Importers of Foodstuff, headed by Hani Bahsali, issued a statement noting that "the Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations (FAO) announced that global food prices rose in September to their highest level in nearly four years, driven by a 6.1% increase in sugar prices over the month, a 5.1% rise in grains, and a 0.9% increase in vegetable oils."

Regarding the impact of these rises on food prices in Lebanon, Bahsali reassured that "fluctuations in global food commodity prices, ranging between 3%, 5%, and even 6%, are considered natural and do not necessarily reflect a global food crisis."

He clarified that "prices of basic commodities do not remain fixed but are continuously affected by supply and demand factors, agricultural seasons, and quantities available in markets," noting that "price increases ranging between 3% and 5% can occur even under normal conditions, in the absence of crises and wars."

He pointed out that "limited increases, including the rise in vegetable oil prices by less than 1%, cannot be considered, in themselves, an indicator of a new crisis, as prices of basic commodities naturally experience continuous fluctuations up and down."

Concerning the trajectory of food commodity prices in the upcoming period, Bahsali identified "two key factors that will influence price trends over the coming months and next year.

The first factor lies in climatic developments, particularly the anticipated El Niño phenomenon during the 2026-2027 period, which may be, according to the forecasts he mentioned, one of the historically strong phenomena, potentially impacting global agricultural production and consequently crop and food prices.

The second factor is related to geopolitical developments in the Strait of Hormuz region and their potential repercussions on fertilizer production and costs."

Bahsali stated that "these two factors do not allow for predicting a decline in food prices in the current phase over the coming months, but rather reinforce the likelihood of continued upward pressure on them."