The 'Majdal Zun' Bomb Sparked 4 Scenarios for Hezbollah's Return in Israel

The explosion of the device inside a building in the town resulted in the deaths of two soldiers and injuries to four others, with serious wounds, opening debate among Israeli military and intelligence circles about the nature of the operation and its associated security and military contexts.

Early Warning

A report by the Almā Research and Studies Center stated that the operation divided Israel’s political and intelligence landscape into two camps: one viewing the incident as a residual security legacy from Hezbollah’s previous infrastructure, and another sounding an early alarm, seeing it as a sign of a reactivated and active militia presence under the cover of civilian movements.

Although Almā favored the second perspective, it outlined several hypotheses regarding the operation, emphasizing its seriousness and significance given multiple security considerations.

Main Scenarios

According to an analytical paper issued by the Almā Center, the nature of the exploded device, its destructive capacity, and the method of planting point to four main scenarios.

The first scenario suggests the device genuinely dates back to an old defensive network, possibly part of the minefields and defensive systems established by the militia before the latest confrontations.

The second scenario involves the device being planted during ongoing armed clashes and recently activated.

The third scenario centers on the hypothesis that a dormant cell affiliated with the militia, based in border areas, carried out the planting and detonation.

The fourth scenario, which is considered the most likely, is that the device was recently planted by armed elements returning to the area under the guise of the gradual return of civilians and residents.

Repositioning

According to the center’s report, the fourth scenario gains urgency due to rapid developments on the ground, where the neighboring town of al-Mansouri has seen a surge in the return of residents and civilians, coinciding with the deployment of Lebanese army units establishing a military outpost there.

The report added that despite the area being officially classified as a fully militarized zone, it has witnessed a rapid return of civilians, and the militia has conducted funerals for several of its members in the region—providing social, religious, and operational cover for the movement of fighters and the rebuilding of military observation points.

According to the report, activities by the Islamic Health Authority, closely linked to Hezbollah, have been observed in the eastern sector and the western Zoutr area, parallel to the Lebanese Army’s presence—posing a real test to the Lebanese military’s ability to control the ground and prevent the use of civil and humanitarian activities as a cover for arms buildup.

In placing the incident in its broader context, the report argues that the Majdal Zun event is not isolated but part of a series of previous violations and attacks, such as the drone strike targeting an engineering vehicle in the Jabal Ali al-Tahir area, underscoring continued efforts by militias to establish new rules of engagement in the region.

The timing also carries significant political weight, according to the report, coming amid ongoing diplomatic communications and arrangements concerning the implementation of the framework agreement and security understandings.

These field operations aim to pressure negotiations or disrupt international and local coordination mechanisms, making the central question not just about when the device was planted, but also about the ability of international actors and the Lebanese army to prevent the southern front from being reconstituted once again.

Al-Arabiya News