As Tensions Mount, Iran's Revolutionary Guard Tightens Grip on the Military

Intelligence data and statements from Iranian and Arab officials reveal Tehran's readiness for a wider military confrontation, coinciding with the stagnation of negotiations with Washington over ending the war and reopening the Strait of Hormuz.

According to such data published by "The Wall Street Journal," Iran's leadership has strengthened the Revolutionary Guard's influence over military and security institutions and expanded production of missiles and drones.

It has also intensified coordination with regional allies in anticipation of a new escalation phase, amid divisions within the leadership between a faction pushing for an agreement to ease economic pressure and another preparing to continue fighting.

After President Trump signed a memorandum of understanding with Iran in mid-June, administration officials moved to rally support for an agreement they hoped would reopen the Strait of Hormuz and begin gradually ending the war.

In contrast, hardline leaders in Tehran convened and devised an alternative plan, according to Iranian and Arab officials, viewing the agreement as a U.S.-Israeli attempt to relieve global economic pressure and buy time for a larger attack later.

Over the past two months, Iran’s leadership has prepared for a broader confrontation instead of relying on negotiations.

Preparations included granting the Revolutionary Guard greater control over the regular army, appointing seasoned fighters from the Iraq War and internal repression campaigns to key positions, expanding counterintelligence operations, and increasing missile and drone production.

It also launched attacks on ships to strengthen control over the Strait of Hormuz and broaden the conflict to include the Red Sea.

The newspaper cited officials familiar with investigation results, stating that Arab intelligence agencies have gathered evidence—including communications between Iran and allied militias in Yemen and Iraq—indicating a strategic shift within Iran’s hardline leadership aimed at preparing forces to expand the war and increase costs for the United States.

Iran’s preparations highlight a significant gap between Washington’s and Tehran’s visions for this stage of the war, prompting Iranian leaders to adopt a rigid negotiating stance and avoid agreements—leaving Trump frustrated, whom he accused of madness and lying.

Iran’s willingness to fight underscores the deep mistrust likely to prevent a lasting agreement to end the conflict in the near term.

Although Iran’s statements are filled with bravado, its military and economic foundations have suffered serious damage from U.S. and Israeli airstrikes.

More pragmatic officials within the leadership, including President Masoud Pezeshkian, have warned that the country needs an agreement to end the war and ease sanctions, or it will face economic collapse.

Nevertheless, Iran is rebuilding its infrastructure and restoring missile bases at a faster pace than expected, alarming Israeli officials monitoring this progress.

When Trump signed the memorandum on June 17 at the Palace of Versailles, the biggest challenge appeared to be convincing American critics that it was not overly generous toward Tehran.

The agreement called for lifting sanctions to allow Iran to sell its oil, access billions of frozen dollars, and establish a $300 billion reconstruction fund, in exchange for opening the Strait of Hormuz and negotiating in good faith over the nuclear program.

But Iran’s firing on ships that the U.S. was directing through the strait three weeks later in early July caught Washington off guard.

In reality, Iran pursued a dual strategy: while diplomats sought a peace deal, Iran’s supreme leader, Ayatollah Seyyed Mojtaba Khamenei, was preparing the security apparatus for a potential large-scale offensive that Tehran might initiate.

According to officials familiar with recent Arab intelligence, the Revolutionary Guard used the calm provided by the memorandum to lay groundwork with allied militias across the region to escalate attacks if needed, sending advisors to Iraq, Yemen, and Lebanon to discuss plans.

Behind the scenes, Khamenei reorganized military and repression institutions, appointing seven senior security figures to lead them—a move revealed just last week.

The appointments came with aggressive objectives, including reinforcing command hierarchy, transforming ideological militias into local intelligence networks, and reinforcing an offensive approach.

Government advisers believe the next phase will go beyond conventional warfare to include external efforts to incite domestic unrest.

The government previously cracked down harshly on economic protests in January and fears ongoing U.S. pressure could trigger a resurgence of demonstrators.

Khamenei has also strengthened the Revolutionary Guard’s influence over the regular army by centralizing control under Brigadier General Ali Abdolahi, a veteran commander who has advocated launching attacks against regional countries.

Officially, the new commander-in-chief of the Revolutionary Guard, Ahmad Vahidi, was assigned the task of executing "strong offensive operations against the enemy."

According to mediators in the talks, Iranian diplomats earlier this month reached an agreement with Oman to establish maritime corridors through the Strait of Hormuz and oversee their operation to gradually reopen it—but the Revolutionary Guard obstructed these efforts and resumed attacking ships.

U.S. officials said that with negotiations stalling and Iranian escalation continuing, Trump has retreated to assess whether economic pressure from sanctions and naval blockade will affect Tehran’s position. However, Iranian leaders remain deeply skeptical of Trump’s motives and are shifting toward a survival economy.

Close associates of senior Iranian negotiators have warned that peace talks may merely be a pause before a new round of conflict. Mehdi Mohammadi, strategic advisor to top negotiator Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf, described the current stalemate as "the calm before the storm."