Assassination of Trump.. Israel Warns of Khamenei's New Equation

Despite some Western observers' tendency to treat Iranian threats to assassinate US President Donald Trump as mere worn-out political rhetoric, an Israeli report said that ideological and operational factors impose great seriousness on Tehran's repeated warning.

The funeral of Iran's former Supreme Leader, Ali Khamenei, last week was filled with sharp popular calls for revenge and the assassination of Trump, in addition to statements by Iranian officials and deputies that "reflect a deep ideological, religious, and operational commitment by the new leadership, supported by a secret infrastructure that has existed for years," according to a report by Israel Hayom.

According to Israeli estimates, "revenge is no longer an option, but has become a decisive test for the new Supreme Leader Mojtaba Khamenei," who operates from a hiding place after being wounded during the war according to senior Israeli and American officials, and affirmed in a message published on Saturday that "this revenge is the will of our people, and must be fully implemented."

The "Seda Iran" newspaper affiliated with the Supreme Leader's office went further, warning that abandoning revenge would give Iran's enemies "the green light to commit more heinous crimes."

Mohsen Rezaei, Khamenei's senior national security advisor, described revenge as "a serious matter that must be pursued," while Ayatollah Ahmad Alam al-Hoda, a prominent member of the Assembly of Experts, called for establishing an "organized operational mechanism" to eliminate the US president.

Operational Capability

These statements are not merely a show of force, according to Israeli estimates, but express a top priority; as the Iranian regime sees the assassination of Trump as "an ideological and religious duty that cannot be reneged on without it being interpreted as weakness that encourages enemies," according to Israel Hayom.

On the operational level, the Israeli report confirms that Iran already possesses the ability to carry out such threats, pointing out that Unit 840 of the Quds Force has a special branch responsible for directing terrorist activity inside the United States, headed by Mohsen Bozorgi.

Quds Force commander Ismail Qaani previously announced in January 2021 that those responsible for the assassination of Qassem Soleimani "may be retaliated against in kind even inside their homes," and the Friday prayer imam in Yasuj threatened in March 2022 with Iran's ability to "strike Washington directly."

Systematic Work

Past experiences reveal a systematic method of work, according to Israel Hayom. In 2011, US authorities uncovered a conspiracy orchestrated by Abdolreza Shahlai of the Quds Force and executed by Iranian-American citizen Mansour Arbabsiar to assassinate a senior official in Washington.

Tehran relies in its external operations on three main groups, according to Israeli estimates: Iranian or Lebanese expatriates holding local citizenship, Muslim elements with ideological affinity, and underworld figures and criminal organizations.

A secret infrastructure was also built in cooperation with Hezbollah since the late 2000s, and despite the strenuous efforts made by the FBI to disrupt these networks, Iran has not abandoned its plans, but is working to develop its technological and operational capabilities.

The Hebrew newspaper also notes that the memorial ceremonies recently held for Ali Khamenei in Islamic centers in New York, Texas, Washington, and Illinois confirm the availability of "a suitable environment for recruitment and activation efforts."

Internal Escalation

Iranian domestic politics also increases the intensity of the rhetoric, as the hardline "Paydari" faction pressures to end any negotiations with the Trump administration, considering him "the killer of Khamenei," in an attempt to outflank the conservative establishment from the right.

Intelligence indicators confirm the seriousness, according to the Wall Street Journal, as a report stated that Israel shared information indicating Iran's planning to assassinate Trump; which prompted the US president to announce specific operational instructions in the event of any attempt succeeding.