Between Trump's Pressure and War Restrictions: Postponed Elections Open Zelensky Succession Battle

Between the pressures of US President Donald Trump's administration to hold presidential elections in Ukraine, and the restrictions of war and martial law provisions, questions are mounting regarding the future of leadership in Kyiv and the identity of the next president.

While Volodymyr Zelensky insists on Ukrainians' right to choose their leader, opinion polls reveal names that could compete with him, led by former military commander Valerii Zaluzhnyi, in a race whose date remains contingent on the outcome of the war.

The Constitution Closes the Door
The issue is not merely political; according to the French newspaper "Le Figaro," the martial law act in effect since 2022 explicitly prohibits holding any elections during the war.

Even if this ban were lifted, the question remains: How can a country vote when it is divided between soldiers in trenches, civilians under bombardment along the contact line, and millions abroad, especially considering that 20% of the territory is under Russian control?

Electronic voting was proposed as a potential solution, but research centers such as the "German Marshall Fund" and the "Institute for the Study of War" warned that Russia would intensify disinformation operations, cyber intrusions, and pressure on polling stations in this case.

The latest poll by the Kyiv International Institute of Sociology (KIIS) revealed that 71% of Ukrainians reject holding any elections before the cessation of fighting.

As for trust in Zelensky, despite declining from a peak of 90% at the start of the war, it has ranged between 54% and 62% for the past two years.

For its part, Moscow uses the card of "Zelensky's legitimacy" as a condition for negotiation, asserting that he is "illegitimate."

Zaluzhnyi... The Strongest Competitor
When hypothetical polls are conducted, one name stands above all others: Valerii Zaluzhnyi, the former Commander-in-Chief of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, who left his post following the failure of the counteroffensive two years ago and was appointed ambassador to London.

Polls place him at levels ranging between 19% and 23% in the first round, where he alternates with Zelensky for the lead. In second-round scenarios, he defeats him by a clear margin. According to the "Rating" social research group, his trust rating reached 64% in early October, the highest among political figures.

Budanov and Poroshenko... Names in the Shadows
Kyrylo Budanov, who headed military intelligence for four years and currently serves as head of the President's Office, ranks third. His enigmatic personality and sarcastic style make him a star on "Telegram" channels, yet he has not exceeded 10% in any poll.

Former President Petro Poroshenko, who lost to Zelensky in 2019, still leads the parliamentary opposition, but his distrust rating stands at 70%, a threshold he has been unable to overcome since his defeat.

Fedorov... The Red Line
In August, Mykhailo Fedorov, the 35-year-old former Defense Minister dismissed by Zelensky, emerged calling for elections. Thousands of Ukrainians took to the streets. Even the organizers of the protests acknowledged that holding elections during wartime represents a red line.

Zelensky stated that while he respects the desire for democratic processes, the security conditions necessary for free and fair elections do not currently exist due to ongoing hostilities and occupation threats.