Deal Raises Kyiv's Concerns: Trump Proposes Easing Russia Sanctions in Exchange for Prisoner Release

US President Donald Trump intends to ease sanctions imposed on Moscow in exchange for the release of political prisoners held by Russian authorities, as part of an American proposal aimed at opening a new path for dealing with the Kremlin alongside efforts to end the war in Ukraine.

According to the newspaper "Le Monde", the White House administration proposed to the Senate, on September 28, approval of the appointment of John Cole, the current US envoy to Belarus, as United States ambassador.

The newspaper notes that Cole, a former lawyer for Trump, rose to prominence in 2025 after successfully negotiating with the regime of Belarusian President Alexander Lukashenko the release of hundreds of political prisoners in exchange for lifting US sanctions, particularly those imposed on potash, a key fertilizer for the Belarusian economy.

During an interview with the Russian opposition channel "Nastoyashchee Vremya" on September 17, Cole expressed hope that Belarus, Moscow's closest ally, would return to the "family of nations". According to "Le Monde", the US envoy now intends to replicate the same model with Russian President Vladimir Putin, a plan revealed by "The Atlantic" magazine on September 29.

According to Tatiana Kastouéva-Jean, director of the Russia-Eurasia Center at the French Institute of International Relations, this type of "trade-off" is not entirely new, noting that it resembles hostage diplomacy during the Cold War, with the difference being that today's trade-off is not between prisoners, but between lives and sanctions.

The newspaper pointed out that the American initiative comes at a time when Trump signed, on September 18, a law granting him the authority to impose tough sanctions on Russia and its trading partners. The bill was co-drafted by Republican Senator Lindsey Graham, one of Trump's close allies and a prominent supporter of Ukraine, who died suddenly in July.

Cole's initiative serves several goals for the Trump administration; it could contribute to reintegrating Russia into the global economy and enhancing dialogue with the Kremlin beyond the Ukrainian file, while also potentially paving the way for the United States to conclude agreements on oil, diesel, rare earth elements, and other Russian raw materials.

The newspaper adds that Trump also believes this step could boost his chances of winning the Nobel Peace Prize, which he seeks, and allow him, on the eve of the midterm elections on November 3, to present tangible progress in relations with the Kremlin after more than a year of stalled peace negotiations regarding Ukraine.

Cheaper Fertilizers
The Trump administration believes that offering some economic incentives may encourage Putin to sign a peace agreement with Ukraine.

Trump announced, on September 21 via his platform "Truth Social", that a "major" trade deal is being negotiated with Belarus for the US to purchase Belarusian potash-based fertilizers, noting that Russia is a party to these negotiations.

"Le Monde" indicates that if the deal is concluded, it will come within the framework of expanding economic exchanges between the United States and Russia outside the scope of the Ukrainian issue, through the possibility of lifting US sanctions imposed on Moscow.

At the same time, Trump wants to obtain cheaper fertilizers for American farmers facing rising prices, and to pressure Canada, the main fertilizer supplier to the US, amid the trade dispute between the two countries. Trump stated that the price would be "much lower than what we currently pay Canada".

"Le Monde" recalls that Jared Kushner, Trump's son-in-law and envoy to the Kremlin, is among the most prominent advocates of what he calls "prosperity deals" between Washington and Moscow, which supporters believe could help temper the Kremlin's expansionist ambitions.

Cole told "The Atlantic" that increased trade could lead to further compromises, whether on economic files, prisoner issues, or others, allowing gradual progress toward peace.

According to "Le Monde", the idea of trading political prisoners for lifting sanctions emerged after a meeting Cole held in the spring with Russian dissident Dmitry Muratov, former editor-in-chief of "Novaya Gazeta" and joint winner of the 2021 Nobel Peace Prize, who advocates for the release of political prisoners in Russia.

Muratov declined to comment on the matter when contacted by "Le Monde".

In contrast, the newspaper notes that Kremlin spokesperson Dmitry Peskov rejects describing detainees referred to by Washington as "political prisoners".

Peskov said in Moscow, on September 30, that Russia "categorically denies" the existence of political prisoners within its borders, considering the use of this term "completely inappropriate".

According to Russian human rights defenders, the number of political prisoners in Russia ranges between 3,000 and 5,000.

Criticism in Washington and Kyiv
"Le Monde" sees that the new US strategy towards Russia may provoke objections from Ukraine and its allies.

The newspaper quotes Kirill Rogov, associate researcher at the Institute for Human Sciences in Vienna and founder of the analysis platform "Re: Russia", saying that what might be acceptable in the case of Belarus does not apply to Russia, arguing that lifting sanctions on Moscow would strengthen its war economy and military machine, which he deemed unacceptable for Europe and Ukraine.

In Washington, "Le Monde" notes that four Democratic and Republican co-chairs of the "Congressional Ukraine Caucus", which includes 104 members of the House of Representatives, called on the Trump administration to abandon any easing of sanctions.

They warned, in a statement issued on September 29, that easing sanctions "would embolden Russia and prolong the war".

In Kyiv, "Le Monde" says criticism is growing over what many Ukrainians perceive as their Western partners' failure to grasp Putin's ambitions.

Peter Dickinson, a researcher at the American think tank "Atlantic Council", wrote in an article published on September 29 that, in his view, Russia's invasion of Ukraine is not merely about annexing territory or border disputes, but rather a historical endeavor to end the existence of the Ukrainian state and revive the Russian Empire.

For his part, Zaki Laïdi, professor of international relations at the Paris Institute of Political Studies, according to "Le Monde", described political prisoners as "merely a pretext", characterizing the proposed arrangement between prisoner releases and sanction lifts as part of a trajectory of economic rapprochement between Moscow and Washington.

US Pressure on Lithuania
The lifting of US sanctions on Belarusian potash in December 2025 did not significantly change Minsk's situation, given that ongoing European sanctions hinder export routes for Belarusian fertilizers, including via the Port of Klaipėda in Lithuania.

According to the newspaper, the United States is pressuring Lithuania to allow the use of the port, which represents the shortest route for transiting Belarusian potash.

However, Lithuanian Foreign Minister Kęstutis Budrys rejected the US request, emphasizing that no Belarusian goods can enter or transit through EU territory as long as sanctions on Belarus remain in force, scheduled for renewal in February 2027.

"Le Monde" concludes by noting that Lithuania announced, on September 22, that its ports would remain closed to shipments of Belarusian potash, which could obstruct the "major" trade deal Trump stated his country is negotiating.