Economic Pressure and Military Losses: Why Is Putin Refusing to End the Ukraine War?

Amid increasing damage inflicted on Russia in the Ukraine war, including rising numbers of civilian casualties from deep Ukrainian strikes, disrupted e-commerce, fuel shortages, and economic slowdown with rising inflation, Russian President Vladimir Putin shows no sign of ending the war, according to Foreign Affairs.

In May, Russian banker Andrei Klyushin said Russia was "falling behind" and losing out in global technological and economic competition—"losing to Ukraine" in some areas—before losing his position in August due to his remarks.

Despite these pressures, Putin faces no real political threat; after more than four and a half years, Russia has failed to convert its massive military sacrifices into tangible gains, yet this has not driven Putin to retreat. Moreover, the war is moving toward escalation rather than nearing an end, making it unrealistic to expect Moscow to make concessions or accept a diplomatic settlement in the near or medium term, according to the report.

Putin’s firm stance stems from the nature of the political system he has built over a quarter-century: since assuming power in 2000, he has tightened control over the state, media, and business sectors, weakened regions, entrepreneurs, and political parties, ultimately emptying political competition of substance. After the invasion of Ukraine, most independent media outlets and hundreds of thousands of anti-war citizens fled into exile, while critics who remained in Russia faced the risk of persecution, according to Foreign Affairs.

At the same time, Putin has militarized the state and society, heavily invested in defense, and tied Russian identity to the memory of victory in World War II. After 2022, portraying Russia as a great power became increasingly linked to military might.

According to the report, Putin does not feel pressure forcing him to make concessions; Russia possesses sufficient human resources to sustain a war of attrition, and productive capacity to launch large quantities of missiles and drones. It has also managed to endure sanctions and isolation from Europe and the United States, despite damage to its economy and trade relations. Meanwhile, Russians lack political tools capable of influencing Kremlin decisions.

The report continues: "Yet Russia's foreign policy reveals vulnerabilities—from declining influence in Venezuela, Syria, Central Asia, Moldova, Azerbaijan, and Armenia to growing dependence on China. These limitations are especially evident in Ukraine, where Russia remains far from the victory Putin envisioned in February 2022—the full control of territory and population."

It adds: "Moscow may be able to inflict widespread damage on Ukraine or impose a ceasefire acceptable to it, but it cannot fully invade the country, and Ukraine’s continued resistance will remain a persistent strategic challenge."