End of the Fast-Track Membership Dream? New European Surprises Redraw Expansion Map

Russia's invasion of Ukraine in early 2022 gave new momentum to efforts to expand the bloc, with former Soviet republics Ukraine and Moldova joining Montenegro and Albania on the list of countries seeking European membership.

Despite Brussels' insistence that EU enlargement remains crucial for its future, admitting new members—especially Ukraine, the largest country in Europe by area and one facing massive repercussions from the ongoing war with Russia—raises fears among other bloc members that it could strain the EU budget and complicate its administration.

In an attempt to curb these concerns, diplomats expect the European Commission to propose a series of "safeguards" to prevent potential members from blocking decisions or draining significant resources from the 27-country union.

The proposals may include obliging new members not to use their veto power in key areas and restricting their access to Common Agricultural Policy subsidies.

Based on the experience of Hungary's repeated obstruction of European procedures under former Prime Minister Viktor Orbán, some parties have demanded more oversight mechanisms to prevent new members from backsliding on democracy or the rule of law.

EU Enlargement Commissioner Marta Kos said in August, "We must ensure we do not allow Trojan horses into the Union."

She added, "Such measures are necessary and not just an add-on. This is critical for building trust and unity within our union in order to accept new members."

Rejection of "Partner Membership"
The anticipated proposal, due Tuesday, was delayed for months as several European countries pushed diverse ideas.

German Chancellor Friedrich Merz proposed earlier this year granting countries "partner membership" status before full accession, allowing them to attend EU meetings without voting rights.

However, several EU countries rejected this idea, as did Ukraine, which saw it as a way to keep aspiring members in a permanent transitional state.

An EU diplomat who requested anonymity said the presentation of the proposal was "a positive sign that the Commission may finally have listened to member states and abandoned unrealistic or outright dangerous options, such as diluted enlargement or fast-tracking."

EU leaders will discuss the proposals at next week's summit. Officials hope to send at least a clear signal that they remain open to enlargement.

In an attempt to counter any potential objections from the four candidate countries, Brussels said it would soon present them with "roadmaps" to define their path toward membership.

Moldovan Prime Minister Vasile Tofan said in Brussels on Monday that his country remains determined to achieve "full membership" as soon as possible.

He added, "At the same time, we recognize the right of member states to design a structure they deem most suitable for advancing the European idea."