EU Energy Commissioner Warns of Price Crisis Amid Iran Conflict

Dan Jørgensen, the European Union’s energy commissioner, issued a warning on Friday that the bloc faces an energy price crisis stemming from the impact of the war in Iran on oil and gas markets. In a letter addressed to EU energy ministers, he urged governments to consider implementing measures to reduce energy demand.

Supply and Price Pressures

"We are facing a price crisis linked to a supply crisis," Jørgensen stated in the message, as reported by Reuters. He acknowledged that while the EU is better prepared now than during the winter of 2021—when Russia reduced gas supplies to Europe by cutting delivered volumes—national authorities must intensify preparations for the upcoming winter season.

The commissioner called on ministers to evaluate or continue actions designed to maintain gas injection into storage facilities or to lower demand for gas and electricity for as long as necessary.

Market Volatility and Forecasts

Natural gas prices in Europe have surged by approximately 70% since July, reaching 73 euros per megawatt-hour on September 21. These figures reflect significant volatility driven by news developments related to the regional conflict, including a recent sell-off that pushed prices down by more than 10%.

Commodity analysts at Goldman Sachs project that average prices will stand at 70 euros per megawatt-hour during the fourth quarter of 2026. This forecast indicates a level substantially higher than the range of roughly 30 to 60 euros per megawatt-hour observed prior to this summer.

Storage Levels and Policy Calls

Gas inventories in northwestern Europe have accumulated at a pace slower than anticipated ahead of winter. Research firm Goldman Sachs estimates that storage levels will reach 19% by the end of March 2027, assuming winter temperatures align with the average of the past ten years.

In a separate development noted in Italian media reports, Jørgensen invited US President Donald Trump to reverse threats to suspend American diesel exports for 90 days. Such a move would allow the White House to temporarily curb rising prices.