Influence War at the Indian Ocean Gateway: Will Washington and Moscow Shift Their Conflict to East Africa?

The United States is seeking to enhance its security and military presence in the Indian Ocean to counter the growing Russian influence in East Africa. This involves expanding cooperation with Madagascar and Mozambique, protecting maritime trade routes, and securing energy investments, amidst American concerns that the Russian security model in the Sahel region may spread to other parts of the continent.

The visit by the Deputy Commander of U.S. Africa Command (AFRICOM), Lieutenant General John Brennan Jr., to Madagascar and Mozambique between November 3 and 7 embodies Washington's move to maintain its position as an influential security partner in a region also attracting increasing attention from Moscow.

Brennan stated during a virtual press conference from Washington on November 10 that African countries are free to establish relationships with partners they choose, but he urged them to recognize the risks associated with their ties to Russia.

He clarified that U.S. Africa Command is concerned about the possibility of Moscow expanding the security model it applies in the Sahel region to East Africa and the Indian Ocean, warning that this could allow Russia to exploit natural resources and undermine the national sovereignty of these countries.

Moscow Expands Relations with Mozambique and Madagascar
Russia is paying increasing attention to the Mozambique Channel, which represents a strategic passage for maritime transport and international trade. On October 28, Mozambican President Daniel Chapo met with his Russian counterpart Vladimir Putin on the sidelines of the Gas Exporting Countries Forum summit in Moscow.

Putin said that commercial and economic relations between the two countries are strengthening, noting that trade volume nearly doubled during the period from January to August 2026.

Relations between Moscow and Maputo are based on historical ties dating back to the Cold War, when the Soviet Union supported the Mozambique Liberation Front (FRELIMO) in its struggle for independence from Portugal.

As part of enhancing cooperation, Russia invited Mozambican officials to participate in training courses in Moscow for the first time this year, and Mozambican parliamentarians participated in a mission to monitor the Russian parliamentary elections in September.

Chapo said his talks with Putin also covered military training and capacity building in the fields of defense and security.

In Madagascar, Moscow has moved to strengthen its influence since the transitional government came to power in October 2025, through increased arms shipments and military training programs, particularly via the Africa Corps, which succeeded the Wagner Group in several of its activities on the continent.

Ports and Maritime Routes Are the Focus of Competition
The port of Diego Suarez, located at the entrance to the Mozambique Channel, is one of the sites attracting Russian interest. The research group "Impact/All Eyes on Wagner" believes that Moscow may seek to develop it into a military and commercial logistics platform, and possibly an outlet for its unofficial fleet known as the Shadow Fleet.

On the sidelines of the Russia-Africa Summit, a number of agreements were ratified between Moscow and its partners in the fields of defense, health, education, and agriculture, as part of expanding bilateral relations.

In response to this presence, Washington is seeking to strengthen its security partnerships in the region. During his visit to Madagascar, Brennan and his accompanying delegation presented a cooperation project with the Malagasy Armed Forces to combat illicit smuggling and piracy, alongside supporting military training programs.

The Deputy Commander of AFRICOM visited the port of Diego Suarez in the city of Antsiranana, confirming that the goal is to enable Malagasy forces to conduct independent operations, ensure maritime routes remain open, and ensure that Madagascar primarily benefits from its marine resources.

In Mozambique, Washington focuses on protecting maritime trade routes connecting South Africa, the Middle East, and the Indian Ocean.

Brennan pointed to the growing naval capabilities of terrorist groups affiliated with ISIS, warning of the possibility that they might target commercial ships crossing the Mozambique Channel in large numbers.

Intelligence Cooperation and Military Training
American plans include encouraging Mozambique to join an intelligence-sharing network comprising seven countries, which is already operational in Madagascar, alongside increasing joint military exercises.

U.S. Africa Command is considering expanding training programs with U.S. Special Operations Forces, aiming to combat terrorism and secure international investments in the gas sector in northern Mozambique.

Washington is also exploring organizing multinational military exercises in the region, involving potential partners such as France, Italy, Japan, and South Korea, who are themselves interested in the security of energy investments and maritime supply routes.

These moves reflect the United States' efforts to strengthen its security presence in the Indian Ocean, at a time when Russia is working to expand its military and economic relations with East African countries, leveraging historical ties, cooperation agreements, and training.

Erem News