Iran's Undersea Cable Threat: A New Hybrid War Frontier?

With negotiations between Washington and Tehran at a standstill, warnings are growing that the crisis in the Middle East could spill over into the world's digital infrastructure. The focus is on undersea cables, the backbone of global communications and the economy, amid fears of potential disruptions to internet traffic and international financial transactions. The deadlock follows President Donald Trump's rejection of an Iranian counter-proposal to a US plan for an agreement, according to a report by the Greek publication "Banking News."

Trump stated in a television interview that US forces could strike "every target" inside Iran within two weeks, asserting that Tehran has been "militarily defeated." He also criticized NATO, calling it a "paper tiger," and described the Iranian response to the American proposal as "unacceptable."

The Vulnerability of the Digital Backbone

Undersea cables have become a potential target in hybrid warfare scenarios in recent years due to their critical role. They carry more than 99% of the world's digital data traffic and support financial transactions estimated in the trillions of dollars daily. The network stretches over 1.5 million kilometers, forming the internet's core infrastructure through more than 500 commercial cables operated by international companies and alliances, capable of high-speed data transmission but remaining susceptible to damage or disruption.

The origins of this network date back to 1988 with the activation of the first transoceanic fiber-optic cable, which later expanded to include lines connecting continents, deepening the world's reliance on this type of communication.

Regional Flashpoints and Rising Risks

Recent years have seen incidents of cable damage and outages. Disruptions in the Red Sea, for example, have slowed internet services in several countries, sparking mutual accusations over regional parties' responsibility for some of these events. More than 20 major undersea cables pass through the Strait of Hormuz and the Red Sea, making the region a pivotal hub for data movement between Asia, Europe, and Africa, and heightening concerns about the impact of any military escalation on the global digital network.

Despite ongoing geopolitical tensions, international and regional investments in new cable and data center projects to bolster digital infrastructure are increasing. Reports warn that any deliberate targeting of these cables could lead to widespread disruptions in internet, financial, and cloud services, as well as potential effects on military communications in some areas, all in the absence of a unified international framework to protect this infrastructure.