Koutiala Battle: Mali Shifts War to Armed Groups' Economy

The military escalation in Koutiala, southern Mali, reveals a notable shift in the strategy of Malian forces, which is moving towards targeting the logistical and economic depth of armed groups. Supported by the African Corps and intensive use of drones, this approach deprives these groups, particularly Jama'at Nusrat al-Islam wal-Muslimin (JNIM), of repositioning opportunities and supply corridors.

Experts believe that opening a southern front near the border with Burkina Faso reflects Bamako's transition from chasing armed groups to dismantling them and striking the environment that provides them with supplies and financing. Warnings indicate that the success of this operation depends on the ability to consolidate military presence, prevent locals from joining those groups, and secure shared borders.

In light of these indicators, it appears that the success of the Koutiala operation will either sever the arteries of movement and supply for armed groups or turn the south into an additional front that drains the Malian army and expands the scope of the war.

In this context, writer and international relations researcher Dr. Ali Al-Sayed stated that the Malian army's strikes south of Koutiala cannot be read as a routine military operation, as they reveal a strategic shift in Bamako's combat doctrine.

Al-Sayed added to "Erem News" that for many months, the Malian army had been waging a defensive war of attrition, pursuing armed groups in direct engagement zones in the center and north. He noted that what is happening in Koutiala in the south, near the border with Burkina Faso, means that Bamako has moved from the phase of pursuit to the phase of dismantling armed groups, specifically JNIM.

He explained that Malian forces no longer rely solely on ambushes but have built logistical depth in the south, such as fuel depots, explosive manufacturing workshops, supply routes, recruitment areas, and tax collection zones from farmers.

Al-Sayed affirmed that the choice of Koutiala is not arbitrary, as it is a rich agricultural area close to vital smuggling corridors, linking Mali between Burkina Faso and Côte d'Ivoire. He stressed that the air and ground strikes there indicate that the Malian army, supported by the African Corps and using drones intensively, has begun targeting the lifeline of those groups.

He considered that battles have shifted towards a logistical attrition war, noting that the first transformation is geographical, as opening a southern front relieves pressure on the center and prevents groups from considering the south a safe zone for repositioning.

He indicated that the second transformation lies in shifting from the logic of hunting armed men to drying up the environment in which they operate. He clarified that the success of this strategy hinges on three factors: first, the ability to stay and entrench rather than just strike and withdraw; second, not pushing local populations towards armed groups; and third, coordination with Burkina Faso, as both countries face the same attacks, and fighting in Koutiala will not succeed if borders remain open.

Al-Sayed concluded his remarks by emphasizing that the Koutiala strikes open a new chapter, noting that the Malian army is attacking the economic depth of jihadists. If these operations succeed, there will be a decline in the capabilities of armed groups; if they fail, the south will turn into a third front draining Bamako.

For his part, Africa affairs specialist Mahfoud Ould El-Salek said that targeting the Koutiala region by the Malian army is significant given its association with armed attacks for years. The area also witnesses several patterns of smuggling, especially weapons, drugs, and fuels. The Malian army had previously thwarted some smuggling attempts there.

Ould El-Salek added to "Erem News" that the Malian army's strikes against armed groups in Koutiala come after extending the curfew there for a month, indicating the continued risk of security instability in the city.

He explained that the current focus of the Malian army and its Russian allies on Koutiala falls within the efforts of Malian authorities to fortify all areas near Bamako, to prevent any attack similar to the coordinated and simultaneous assault that targeted the capital and several other cities at the end of last April, during which Defense Minister Sadio Camara was killed after his home in Kati, on the outskirts of the capital, was targeted.

He considered that this focus also carries an external message, as strengthening the army's presence in Koutiala and securing it reassures foreigners about the possibility of visiting, after gunmen kidnapped four foreigners, including three Italians, in a town belonging to this city at the end of May 2022, i.e., during the rule of the current military council governing the country.