The 'Naval Notices' War: Will Turkey and Greece Slide into a Direct Confrontation?

The Turkish-Greek dispute in the "Aegean" Sea has entered a new phase of escalation, after military maneuvers and navigational warnings turned into a mutual confrontation between Ankara and Athens, with the overlap of training areas announced by both parties coinciding partially during October.

This new tension between the two countries opens the door to the possibility of field friction between Turkish and Greek naval and air forces, even without a political decision to go for an open confrontation, unless the two countries reach an agreement or coordination, or one or both retreat from the location and timing of the maneuvers.

The escalation began with Turkey's announcement of allocating five areas in the Aegean Sea for military exercises between September 25 and October 27. Greece responded with a counter-notification, announcing joint air and sea exercises between October 12 and 20, in two areas that overlap with the northern part of the areas defined by Turkey.

The two countries rely on international maritime notices (NAVTEX) to alert each other, but the system of international maritime and aviation messages and warnings for ships at sea appeared this time more like a confrontation given the dispute over the boundaries and timing of each country's maneuver.

The Greek notice to Turkey came after a notice issued by Turkey, which then asked Athens to amend its training areas. Ankara later declared the Greek notice invalid, after Athens stuck to its position, stating that its maneuvers are within its maritime borders and airspace, which Turkish maneuvers penetrate.

Increasing tension between Ankara and Athens
A source in the Foreign Affairs Committee of the Turkish Parliament acknowledged that tension between his country and Greece has increased in the recent period due to disputes over several issues and files, foremost among them is Greece's project to lay an electric cable connecting it with Greek Cyprus and extending later towards Israel.

The source added to "Erem News" that Ankara's current assessment of that tension is based on the existence of Greek provocations against his country after a period of calm and dialogue, considering that they are linked to the Greek domestic scene where parties are preparing for parliamentary elections in the spring of next year, where the relationship with Turkey plays a big role in attracting the attention of Greek public opinion.

The new tension goes beyond the issue of organizing naval and air maneuvers, as the essence of the dispute lies in who owns the right to issue notices and organize military activities in parts of the Aegean Sea.

Greece insists on its powers within the Athens Flight Information Region, while Turkey rejects what it considers an attempt to impose Greek jurisdiction over areas of international airspace, in a dispute also related to the broader conflict over sovereignty and maritime zones.

The new war of notices comes against the backdrop of tension related to the submarine power interconnection project that is supposed to connect Greece with Cyprus and then Israel. Ankara demands coordination with it before implementing cable-laying, pipeline, or scientific research activities in areas it considers part of its continental shelf, while Athens refuses to grant Turkey the right of prior approval for the project.

Complex Disputes
Turkey and Greece have failed to resolve their long-standing disputes despite their membership in the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO), leaving those disputes a cause for continuous tensions, with international circumstances always playing a role in fueling them, from issues related to territorial waters, the continental shelf, islands, and the military status of some of them, to Cyprus, exploration rights, and energy.

Despite this, the two countries succeeded in avoiding direct confrontation and keeping the path of dialogue open between them, even without making progress, but they and behind them "NATO" did not settle the legal dispute over maritime borders nor find solutions to the issues of divided Cyprus and other remaining disputes between the two countries.

The increasing bilateral tensions regarding the continental shelf, exclusive economic zones, and exploration rights make the margin for maneuver limited, so that every maritime or environmental action appears as a sovereign message and an attempt to entrench a new maritime reality that heralds an escalation that may exceed its drawn limits in some cases.

"Erem News"