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World
Russia is escalating activities near NATO's Baltic frontier, using drones and aircraft to test the alliance's defenses without triggering direct military conflict.
On May 7, drones believed to have originated from Russia entered Latvian airspace, with one crashing into an oil storage facility. Latvian authorities are still searching for another drone thought to have gone down in the Rezekne region. Officials stated that the unmanned aircraft were not intercepted due to concerns for civilian safety and critical infrastructure. Latvia’s president and prime minister linked the incident to Russia’s war in Ukraine, though the drones’ source has not been definitively confirmed.
These events are part of a broader pattern of incidents that have escalated since the start of Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine. NATO’s Baltic Air Policing mission scrambled its fighters three times in a single week to intercept Russian aircraft near regional airspace. On April 29, the mission intercepted two SU-24 bombers and a TU-134 plane. Two days later, on May 1, two Russian SU-24M jets were intercepted and escorted. Reports indicate these aircraft were flying without transponders, flight plans, or communication with air traffic control centers.
Russia’s Defense Ministry has described these flights as routine and compliant with international norms. However, NATO’s air defense systems in the region face recurring challenges regardless of the aircraft or drones’ origin. Similar incidents occurred in March, with drones crashing in all three Baltic states—one of which struck a power station in Estonia. During the Christmas period of 2025, Polish air defense forces intercepted a Russian reconnaissance aircraft near international waters over the Baltic Sea.
The Lithuanian government has confirmed that the pace of military operations along NATO’s border has increased as a direct result of the war in Ukraine.
These activities now extend to critical undersea infrastructure. On April 9, British and Norwegian authorities announced they had thwarted a Russian operation aimed at surveying fiber-optic cables beneath the North Atlantic. A Russian ship and an attack submarine were also observed near British waters and sensitive underwater installations.
This pattern of behavior has been ongoing since at least 2021 in both the Baltic Sea and the Arctic. In January 2025, a cargo ship was detained on suspicion of sabotaging a submarine cable connecting Sweden’s Gotland Island to Latvia’s Ventspils. In October 2023, damage was reported to the Balticconnector gas pipeline, with Russian and Chinese vessels spotted near the damage sites. In November 2024, undersea communication cables were cut, with indications that a Chinese ship was involved in operations directed by an unidentified Russian intelligence agency.
These developments, as detailed in the report, show that Russia continues to probe NATO’s capabilities by exploiting vulnerabilities on the Baltic front within the context of the war in Ukraine. Moscow maintains a degree of deniability, allowing it to expand the scope of these activities without triggering a direct confrontation.
