The 'Chicken Egg'... New Parties That Could Decide Netanyahu's Fate

With the countdown to the Knesset elections underway, a new political map is taking shape where declining parties meet rising rivals.

The elections scheduled for the 27th of next month will be Israel’s first since Hamas’s attack on October 7, 2023.

In this context, the Jerusalem Post reports that voters’ political and security priorities have shifted significantly compared to the 2022 elections.

The upcoming race centers on several key issues, including the severe shortage of manpower in the Israeli military after three years of war, the controversial mandatory conscription law for ultra-Orthodox Jews (Haredim), and calls for establishing a government inquiry into the failures related to the October 7 attack.

Among other major issues, the fate of Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu—who has led Israel for 19 years—stands at the forefront.

Ofir Kinnegi, a political expert and researcher at the Israeli Democracy Institute’s Reform Program, told the Jerusalem Post that the upcoming elections will determine the trajectory of democracy in Israel.

Kinnegi, also a lecturer at Ashkelon Academic College, explained that the current ruling coalition differs from previous governments led by Netanyahu in being “entirely right-wing,” a shift felt by Israeli society due to fundamental policy changes over the past four years.

Recent polls indicate that Netanyahu’s Likud party has dropped from 32 seats in the 25th Knesset to around 22 seats currently.

On this point, the political expert added, “It will be interesting to follow the evolution of political alliances among parties approaching the election threshold, now known as the ‘third bloc,’ a new group of parties offering an alternative to the current right-wing parties.”

He emphasized the importance of monitoring Arab parties, noting that the formation of a new joint list could weaken Netanyahu’s coalition.

He said Netanyahu’s recent calls for forming a “broad national government” indicate that the prime minister faces an “unfavorable situation” amid his party’s decline in public opinion polls.

He believes Netanyahu “may have shifted from seeking a clear victory to trying to avoid defeat.”

“In this case, the question may no longer be whether Likud remains the largest party, but whether Netanyahu can form a government coalition under his own leadership,” according to Kinnegi.

In such a scenario, Kinnegi assumes Netanyahu might aim for an electoral outcome where the opposition alliance fails to secure a majority, allowing him to remain in power at the head of a transitional government until another election is held.

Netanyahu’s Camp

Netanyahu’s camp includes Likud along with several right-wing and religious parties, such as:

First: The HaLev HaYehudi party led by extremist National Security Minister Itamar Ben-Gvir, which has seen its polling prospects rise to about eight seats in the current Knesset.

One of the party’s conditions in coalition agreements with Netanyahu was passing a law imposing the death penalty on Palestinian prisoners; the legislation was enacted in March.

Second: The far-right Religious Zionism party, led by Finance Minister Bezalel Smotrich, currently holds seven seats, with polls suggesting it may gain four seats.

The party focuses on Jewish identity, expanding settlements, and asserting Israeli sovereignty over the West Bank.

Besides these two parties, the Haredim also form a crucial part of Netanyahu’s camp through Shas and Yehuda HaTorah.

Shas, holding 11 seats, is projected to gain around seven seats in polls. Meanwhile, Yehuda HaTorah is expected to rise from seven to nearly nine seats.

The issue of conscripting Haredim remains a central political controversy in Israel, especially given the acute manpower shortage within the military.

Opposition Camp: New Challengers to Netanyahu

The main goal of the opposition is to establish an official committee to investigate the “government’s failures linked to the October 7 attack,” alongside pushing for the conscription of Haredim into the army.

At the forefront of this bloc is Gadi Eisenkot, former IDF Chief of Staff, who leads the Yesh Atid party.

According to polls, Yesh Atid has become the largest party in the opposition camp, with around 26 seats—surpassing Likud.

Former Prime Minister Naftali Bennett is also running at the head of Yahad, in a coalition with former Prime Minister Yair Lapid, who ranks second on the party’s list and is projected to win around 14 seats according to polls.

Bennett takes a hardline stance against Arab parties joining any future government coalition, opposes forming a government with Haredim, and calls for cutting off state funding for those evading military service.

Meanwhile, Yariv Levin leads the Democrats party, formerly known as HaAvoda, which previously held four seats; current polls project it to gain around ten seats.

However, unlike many opposition parties, Levin is open to forming a coalition with Arab parties—a stance that has caused tensions within the opposition camp, according to the newspaper.

Similarly, Avigdor Lieberman is running on the Yisrael Beiteinu party, which is climbing in polls from six seats to about ten.

The party holds hardline security positions, calling for decisive elimination of Hamas, Hezbollah, and Iran’s regime, while supporting expansion of settlements in the West Bank and separation of religion from state.

Conversely, the Blue and White party, led by former IDF Chief of Staff Benny Gantz, faces the risk of failing to cross the electoral threshold, as polls show it below the cutoff.

Unlike most opposition parties, Gantz does not rule out cooperation with Netanyahu and advocates forming a broad government, yet he simultaneously rejects participation in a coalition including Haredi or Arab parties.

Arab Parties

Several Arab parties are participating in the Knesset race, including the United Arab List led by Mansour Abbas, Hadash-Taal, and Balad.

These parties seek to advance equality for Arab citizens, remove Netanyahu and hardline right-wing figures like Ben-Gvir from government, and support the establishment of a Palestinian state.

The Third Bloc: The 'Chicken Egg'

The emergence of what is now known as the “third bloc” is considered one of the most significant developments in the elections by Israeli media.

It is a group of new right-wing parties expressing dissatisfaction with the performance of traditional right-wing parties within Netanyahu’s coalition, particularly regarding the issue of conscripting Haredim.

The bloc includes new parties such as HaBayit HaZioni – HaTzofeh, HaEchad, and Am Yisrael.

Polls suggest these parties are approaching the electoral threshold and present themselves as “an option for right-wing voters who find no suitable representation of their beliefs in existing parties.”

According to the Jerusalem Post, if some of these parties manage to surpass the threshold, they could become the “chicken egg” in forming the next government.