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World
Three informed sources reported that US intelligence assessments indicate the time Iran needs to build a nuclear weapon has not changed since last summer, when analysts estimated that the US-Israeli attack delayed the timeline by up to a year.
Three informed sources reported that US intelligence assessments indicate that the time Iran needs to build a nuclear weapon has not changed since last summer,
when analysts estimated that the US-Israeli attack delayed the timeline by up to a year.
Assessments regarding Tehran's nuclear program remain generally unchanged even two months after the outbreak of the US-Israeli war on Iran to achieve several goals, including preventing Tehran from building a nuclear bomb.
The current US and Israeli war, which broke out on February 28 last, focused on conventional military targets, but Israel struck a number of important nuclear facilities.
The unchanged timeline indicates that significantly hindering Tehran's nuclear program may require destroying or removing the remaining stockpile of highly enriched uranium in Iran.
The war has stopped since the ceasefire between the United States and Iran took effect on April 8 last, in pursuit of peace.
Tensions remain high as the two sides appear deeply divided. Iran choked traffic through the Strait of Hormuz, blocking about 20% of global oil supplies and sparking an energy crisis.
US Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth said the United States aims to ensure Iran does not obtain a nuclear weapon through ongoing negotiations with Tehran.
Two sources said that US intelligence agencies concluded before the 12-day war in June 2025 that Iran could most likely produce enough uranium suitable for making a nuclear bomb, and produce a bomb within 3-6 months.
The two sources and a person familiar with the assessments said that US intelligence estimates, following the strikes the United States launched last June on the Natanz, Fordow, and Isfahan nuclear complexes, delayed this timeline to between 9 months and about a year.
The attacks destroyed or severely damaged three uranium enrichment facilities that were operating at the time, but the International Atomic Energy Agency has been unable to verify the location of about 440 kilograms of uranium enriched to 60%.
The agency believes that about half of this amount is stored in an underground tunnel complex at the nuclear research center in Isfahan, but it has not been able to confirm this since inspections were suspended.
The Atomic Energy Agency estimates that the total stockpile of highly enriched uranium is enough to make 10 nuclear bombs if its enrichment level is raised.
White House spokesperson Olivia Wells said, referring to the June operation and the more recent war that began last February, "While Operation 'Midnight Hammer' destroyed Iranian nuclear facilities, Operation 'Epic of Wrath' exploited this success to destroy the defense industrial base that Iran previously used as a protective shield in its pursuit of a nuclear weapon."
She added, "President Trump has long been clear in his position that Iran will never possess a nuclear weapon, and he is serious and sincere in what he says."
The Office of the Director of National Intelligence did not respond to a request for comment.
Halting Tehran's nuclear program a key goal for America
US officials, including Trump, have repeatedly stated that the main goal of the war is to eliminate the Iranian nuclear program.
US Vice President JD Vance said on the social media platform "X" on March 2 last that "Iran must never be allowed to obtain a nuclear weapon. That is the goal of this operation."
The sources said that the fixed estimate of the time Iran would take to develop such a weapon partially reflects what the recent US-Israeli military campaign focused on.
Israel bombed targets related to the nuclear program, including a uranium processing facility in late March, while US attacks focused on conventional military capabilities, Iranian leadership, and its military industrial base.
Analysts said the reason for the fixed estimates may be the lack of major nuclear targets that could be easily and safely destroyed after the military operation in June.
Eric Brewer, a former senior US intelligence analyst who led assessments of the Iranian nuclear program, said the stability of the assessments is not surprising because the recent US strikes did not prioritize targets related to the nuclear program.
Brewer added, "Iran still possesses all its nuclear materials, as far as we know... It is likely that these materials are buried in underground sites at a depth that US munitions cannot penetrate."
In the past few weeks, US officials have studied carrying out dangerous operations that would severely hinder Iran's nuclear efforts. These options include ground raids to recover the highly enriched uranium believed to be stored in the tunnel complex at the Isfahan site.
