Trump's Dual Strategy on Iran: A 'Victory Without War'

Washington and Tel Aviv assessments indicate that U.S. President Donald Trump has adopted a dual strategy toward Iran. According to Hebrew media reports, this approach allows Trump to secure an agreement preventing Tehran from obtaining a nuclear weapon while maintaining freedom of navigation in the Strait of Hormuz, all without being drawn into another protracted Middle Eastern conflict.

Israeli officials have reportedly acknowledged a shift in the U.S. target bank regarding Iran. Despite occasional frustration with American restraint, there is implicit understanding that Trump does not want to be pulled into a long-term war, sources told Israeli officials.

Dual Track of Threats and Diplomacy

The Israeli news site Walla reported that despite an unusual exchange of fire on Thursday in the Strait of Hormuz between U.S. forces and the Revolutionary Guard navy, Trump remains committed to reaching a deal with Iran and is not inclined toward a full-scale war. The assessment is based on White House backchannel discussions, where Israeli and American officials acknowledged that "Trump has become that president looking for any way to end the crisis, while simultaneously continuing threats, attacks, and exerting immense military and economic pressure on Iran."

After a series of hostile messages, Trump has repeatedly indicated his ultimate goal is "to reach an agreement that allows him to declare victory and end the crisis." According to an analysis by Walla's sources, while Trump speaks of diplomacy, the situation on the ground is closer to "de-escalation" than a "ceasefire."

Trump described the situation in his direct style, saying: "Three advanced U.S. destroyers successfully passed through the Strait of Hormuz under a hail of fire. They were unharmed, but the Iranians suffered heavy losses." He added: "The Iranian navy no longer exists. They are now using small, fast boats instead of their fleet resting on the seabed."

Despite his belligerent tone, phrases like "agreement," "memorandum of understanding," and "diplomatic path" frequently appear in White House communications. Republican Senator Lindsey Graham, a prominent hawkish voice on Iran in Washington, warned that "the details of the agreement matter." In press statements, he said he "still hopes for a diplomatic solution, but one that not only addresses the nuclear issue but also deals with Iran's role as the largest state sponsor of terrorism in the world."

Internal White House Dynamics

Within the framework of his "target bank" in Iran, Trump continues to pursue a dual strategy, combining severe threats with attempts to project complete control over the situation. He stated, "They want the deal much more than I do," claiming that if Iran does not sign quickly, "they will suffer huge losses." Senior U.S. officials acknowledge that even inside the White House, it is sometimes difficult to keep up with Trump's changing pace.

In a rare appearance at the "Independent Women" conference on Thursday evening, White House Chief of Staff Susie Wiles said: "The Trump White House is very dynamic, and that's a nice way of saying everything changes daily. No one knows what the morning will bring."

Walla concluded that "despite this chaos, Washington, as well as Tel Aviv, recognize a clear direction: Trump wants to reach an agreement he can present as a historic achievement, one that prevents Iran from obtaining nuclear weapons, preserves freedom of navigation in the Strait of Hormuz, and thus allows him to declare victory without being dragged into another long American war in the Middle East." The U.S. president also acknowledges that "the Iranians have already agreed to renounce nuclear weapons, and now it remains to be seen whether they will sign an agreement," according to his own words.