Ukraine’s Drone Swarm Tactics Challenge Russian Air Defenses

Ukraine’s ongoing use of drone swarms to overwhelm Russian air defenses has shown a degree of effectiveness, particularly as intense drone attacks on Moscow continue. This approach aims to neutralize or reduce the efficiency of Russian defense systems.

One of the most recent assaults, described as the largest since the war began, targeted Moscow on Thursday. The American network CNN characterized this as a new example of Ukraine’s successful strategy to flood Russian defenses with drones.

Since 2024, Ukraine has intensified its long-range attacks on Russian oil refineries and military sites. It has also managed to breach Russian defenses in Saint Petersburg and repeatedly targeted Moscow, extending the conflict to Russia’s two largest cities, according to CNN.

Markus Schiller, a senior researcher at the Stockholm International Peace Research Institute, stated that Ukraine has been continuously enhancing its offensive capabilities over several years.

Video footage shows Russian soldiers deploying man-portable air-defense systems (MANPADS) from a busy highway in Moscow’s suburbs, with vehicles passing cautiously nearby. Sto Ray, a military analyst at McKinsey Intelligence Services, described the scene as reflecting a lack of professionalism in the defense, noting the absence of traffic control and the close proximity of military equipment to civilians and vehicles.

At the war’s outset, Russian air defenses were concentrated along the border with Ukraine and frontline areas, according to Ukrainian military sources. Kyiv’s strategy, however, targeted multiple sites within Russian-controlled territories and inside Moscow itself, forcing Russia to redistribute its air defense systems.

Ukraine has also targeted air defense launch platforms and radar systems for years to weaken Russian defensive capabilities. The Ukrainian armed forces claim to have destroyed 166 Russian anti-aircraft elements since the beginning of this year and more than 1,432 since the war started in 2022.

Experts note that Russian air defense systems were originally designed to counter conventional aircraft, ballistic missiles, and cruise missiles—not drone attacks. Thomas Withington, a military science researcher at the Royal United Services Institute in London, explained that Russian defenses are ill-suited for this type of threat.

Withington told CNN that Russian air defenses are not prepared to detect, track, or respond effectively to drone attacks. Even with significant modifications, this shortcoming would persist. He added that international sanctions have limited Moscow’s access to the technology needed to develop systems capable of countering such attacks. Increasing production would likely result in more systems that fail to meet operational requirements.

The escalation of drone attacks led the Kremlin to scale back the Victory Day parade in Red Square last May, omitting military equipment displays due to what the Russian Ministry of Defense described as the “current operational situation.” Moscow also called for a temporary ceasefire during the celebrations.

Nonetheless, experts affirm that Russian defenses continue to shoot down a significant number of Ukrainian drones. On Friday morning, the Russian military announced it had intercepted 216 Ukrainian drones across the country.

Robert Brovdi, commander of Ukraine’s unmanned systems forces, noted that Moscow had over 100 air defense launch platforms and more than 50 mobile Pantsir air defense systems as of mid-May.

However, with Ukraine deploying over 100 drones in a single attack, some are likely to penetrate even strong defenses. Modern drones are also harder to detect compared to missiles or larger aircraft.

Withington explained that while drones may appear on radar, there is a significant difference between detecting a target and obtaining precise tracking. He pointed out that attacks involving hundreds of drones approaching from multiple directions require extensive coordination among Russia’s integrated defense systems, which is reportedly lacking.

Repeated large-scale attacks have sparked speculation about the depletion of Russian defensive ammunition. Although verifying the size of Russia’s military stockpiles is challenging, the ongoing substantial and frequent Ukrainian strikes could exhaust these reserves.