US Intelligence Estimates Iran Possesses 1,500 to 2,500 Missiles

US officials stated that intelligence agencies estimate Iran possesses between 1,500 and 2,500 missiles in its arsenal, granting Tehran substantial capability to attack US and allied targets should full-scale war resume.

The officials clarified that this assessment is "imprecise" due to the difficulty of tracking the exact number of ready-to-launch or stored missiles, but they firmly confirmed that Iran retains a massive stockpile, according to the "Wall Street Journal."

According to the newspaper, Israeli military officials also estimate that Iran possesses more than 1,500 ballistic missiles, with estimates varying in the broader region due to the difficulty of determining the precise number.

Rebuilding the Arsenal

Simone Ledeen, who served as Deputy Assistant Secretary of Defense for Middle East Affairs during Donald Trump's first term, said that even the lower estimate of 1,500 missiles means Iran has renewed more than half of its estimated pre-war stockpile.

She added in a statement published by the "Wall Street Journal" that Iran completely rebuilt its arsenal between the 12-day war in June 2025 and the start of the current conflict in February.

Despite suffering a heavy blow, an Israeli military official said the Iranians are "rebuilding themselves, rearming themselves," and preparing for a dangerous round of fighting.

Iran used ballistic missiles, drones, and advanced tactics to continue inflicting damage on US military facilities and radar and early warning systems across the Middle East. As a result, many US military assets were moved to Israel, which is considered safer, according to Israeli and US officials.

Currently, President Trump chose to maintain economic pressure on Tehran through blockade and sanctions, rather than ordering widespread strikes.

Vice President JD Vance used the pause in fighting to open a communication channel with an Iranian hardliner seeking an agreement, but Trump directed him to end diplomatic negotiations and focus on domestic issues. US allies in the Gulf informed the Trump administration that they do not want a return to war, fearing Iran would target them with missiles and drones in retaliation.

Benjamin Netanyahu, the outgoing Israeli Prime Minister following inconclusive elections last month, continues to press for resuming operations in Iran. Mossad Director Roman Gofman was in Washington on Friday to hold talks with US officials regarding Iran.

Trump hinted during a speech delivered on Wednesday on Veterans Day that the United States had not defeated the Islamic Republic completely, saying: "We won. Now the question is when we want to end this conflict. We must achieve total victory, not a 93% victory."

Later, he told radio host Hugh Hewitt that the Iranian regime remaining in power until the end of his term would be considered a "defeat" for the United States. For his part, a White House official said Operation "Epic Fury" rendered Iranian forces incapable, and the economic strangulation campaign made the regime weaker than ever before.

The "Wall Street Journal" quoted Jim Lamson, a visiting researcher at King's College London and former CIA analyst, saying that estimating the number of missiles Iran possesses is difficult due to Tehran's secrecy, the multitude of different missile manufacturers, and unknowns regarding how many new missiles can be produced from final components stored underground.

Lamson, a specialist in Iranian military affairs, added that assessments conducted before the war were inherently ambiguous, stating: "After doing this work for the government, I know confidence can be very low even with all classified information available."

Goal of "Destroying Missiles"

Destroying Iran's ballistic missile capabilities was a goal for the United States and Israel when launching the war, and both countries declared success after the joint bombing campaign, with Netanyahu claiming the Iranian missile program was crushed and remaining missiles were "exhausted."

But reality, according to current estimates, indicates that Iran managed to improve the effectiveness of its attacks against targets in the Middle East by enhancing its intelligence information and targeting data, including with the help of allies like Russia, and by developing tactics such as integrating missiles and drones.

Bilal Saab, Managing Director of "Trends US," a geopolitical risk firm based in Washington, said: "It is not just about the size of that arsenal. It is about how Iran uses it, and its leaders have learned some tricks to be more effective."

The "Wall Street Journal" reported last April that Iran retains thousands of short- and medium-range ballistic missiles, which can be extracted from underground sites.

Israeli and US strikes caused the entrances to those facilities to collapse, but satellite images later showed that Iran regained access to some of them by digging them out.

An Israeli official told the "Wall Street Journal" that missiles located in underground sites likely survived and are intact.

Last September, the newspaper reported that Iran resumed production of ballistic missiles from ready-stored components.