Women Lead the Race to Succeed Guterres at the UN, Including a Lebanese-Origin Diplomat

The race to succeed UN Secretary-General António Guterres has entered a clearer phase after the second round of confidential advisory voting within the Security Council showed candidate Carolin Rodríguez-Pérez from Guyana leading, followed by Costa Rican candidate Rebecca Greenspan.

This comes as attention turns to the possibility of a woman reaching the top of the international organization for the first time, with the final decision still dependent on the positions of the five permanent members of the Security Council and their right to veto, according to Reuters.

Second-round lead

The Security Council conducted its second round of non-binding advisory voting on Friday, August 21, to assess candidates' prospects for succeeding Guterres, whose second term ends at the end of 2026.

The Council comprises 15 countries and conducts voting behind closed doors using options: "encouragement," "not encouragement," and "no opinion."

According to diplomats speaking to The National, Guyanese candidate Carolin Rodríguez-Pérez received 8 votes of encouragement, topping the second round, while Costa Rican candidate Rebecca Greenspan, who led the first round, and International Atomic Energy Agency Director Rafael Grossi each received 7 votes of encouragement.

Details reported by El País show Rodríguez-Pérez also received 3 votes of "not encouragement," compared to 4 negative votes for Greenspan, making the two candidates trade the lead between the two rounds of voting.

Greenspan had led the first round, held on July 30, ahead of Rodríguez-Pérez and Grossi.

Female presence

The number of candidates vying for the post rose to eight after Ecuadorian diplomat Ivonne Abdallah Al-Bakri entered the race on August 17, nominated by the Kingdom of Tonga.

The current list includes, alongside Rodríguez-Pérez, Greenspan, and Grossi, former Chilean president Michelle Bachelet, former Ecuadorian foreign minister María Fernanda Espinosa, former Senegalese president Macky Sall, Ugandan diplomat Olara Otunnu, and Abdallah Al-Bakri.

Thus, the list features 5 women against 3 men, in a race that could culminate in the appointment of the first woman in UN history as Secretary-General—a prospect gaining increasing support from states and civil society organizations.

Ivonne Abdallah Al-Bakri: Of Lebanese origin

Absent from the first round of advisory voting due to her late entry, Ivonne Abdallah Al-Bakri was officially nominated by Tonga on August 17, becoming the eighth candidate, according to the United Nations and Reuters.

Abdallah Al-Bakri is an Ecuadorian diplomat born to Lebanese immigrant parents and lived in Lebanon during the civil war between 1975 and 1990. She has previously held various government and diplomatic posts, including serving as a minister in the Ecuadorian government, and served as ambassador of her country to the United States, France, and Qatar.

During an informal dialogue with member states and civil society on Thursday, Abdallah Al-Bakri drew on her experience during the Lebanese war, stating she lived through years of conflict in Beirut, cradling her three children as bombs fell, before committing herself to peace.

If elected, she pledged to focus on preventing conflicts before they erupt, working on the ground in areas of tension and war, and advancing reforms to make the UN more effective and the Security Council more representative of today’s geopolitical reality.

However, her late entry did not impact results in the second round: she received zero votes of encouragement and 8 votes of "not encouragement." El País reported she received 7 abstentions.

Reuters previously noted that Abdallah Al-Bakri told an Ecuadorian radio station she had U.S. support for her candidacy, though Washington has not officially commented on these remarks.

Increasing prospects

So far, the voting trajectory indicates strong female representation at the forefront of the race, with Greenspan leading the first round and Rodríguez-Pérez moving into first place in the second. Both candidates represent Latin America and the Caribbean—region traditionally seen as most likely to hold the post in this cycle under the unwritten principle of geographical rotation.

If either Greenspan or Rodríguez-Pérez wins, it would be the first time a woman holds the UN Secretary-General position since the organization's founding in 1945.

Grossi’s decline

Rafael Grossi retained a strong position in the second round with 7 votes of encouragement but failed to surpass the two leading candidates. According to El País, Grossi remained in third place across both voting rounds, despite earlier being considered one of the top contenders.

In contrast, diplomats and observers say the race remains open, as the stage revealing the positions of the five permanent members—the United States, Russia, China, France, and the United Kingdom—has not yet begun. The possibility of new candidates entering the race remains viable.

Russian UN Ambassador Vassily Nebenzya said the emergence of new candidates remains a possibility if none of the current names achieve sufficient progress.

Selecting the Secretary-General

The UN Charter stipulates that the Secretary-General is appointed by the General Assembly based on a recommendation from the Security Council. In practice, a candidate needs at least 9 votes out of 15 in the Security Council, without any of the five permanent members using their veto. After clearing this hurdle, the recommendation is sent to the General Assembly, composed of 193 member states, for approval.

Advisory voting rounds have been used for decades to test candidates’ prospects before moving to a more sensitive phase, while official records of these votes are not preserved and ballot papers are destroyed after each round.

Transparency of the process

The race coincides with debate over the transparency of the Secretary-General selection mechanism. President of the General Assembly Anaïs Bokobza has pushed for a more transparent and inclusive process, including public dialogues with candidates and allowing member states and civil society to hear their platforms.

These efforts have drawn criticism from the United States and Russia, which argue that Bokobza is exceeding the scope of powers associated with the General Assembly’s role, which is primarily led by Security Council member states.

Mounting pressure

The succession race unfolds during a difficult period for the UN, facing financial, political pressures, and challenges linked to wars and international divisions. The General Assembly presidency noted the organization faces unprecedented financial and political pressures, while the ongoing UN80 reform program aims to make it more efficient and effective.

The organization faces pressure from the administration of U.S. President Donald Trump regarding funding and reforms, while Washington announced plans to pay $725 million in overdue contributions to the UN, linking future contributions to reform measures and cost reductions.