Extension of UNIFIL... What Is the 'Plan B'?:

Lebanon’s official channels are making every effort to extend the mandate of international forces in southern Lebanon, which expires this year.

In this context, President of the Republic General Joseph Aoun is raising this issue during his current visits to Rome and the Vatican, while Prime Minister Najib Mikati will also address it, according to informed political sources, during his participation in the United Nations General Assembly in New York next September.

Keeping UNIFIL in place is considered Lebanon’s best option, as President Aoun stated earlier this week when he received a parliamentary delegation and was handed a petition signed by 86 members of parliament demanding the United Nations extend the international forces’ mandate—also delivered Tuesday to the American Task Force on Lebanon at the Parliament.

However, according to sources, these efforts that Beirut intends to pursue until the very last moment are unlikely to succeed, given that Washington firmly opposes any renewal of UNIFIL and has placed a veto on the request, arguing that the UN forces have not fulfilled their duties properly since at least 2006.

From this standpoint, Lebanon’s official institutions are simultaneously working on Plan B: establishing a new multinational force composed of military units from several countries expressing interest in remaining in Lebanon, such as Italy, France, and Spain, to replace UNIFIL after its mission ends, either through direct agreements between Lebanon and these nations or via the United Nations.

According to sources, this new force is expected to be separate from the monitoring force tasked with ensuring compliance with the Framework Agreement currently being developed under U.S. initiative—unless Washington’s efforts align with Lebanon’s diplomatic outreach, leading to a single force capable of both monitoring and replacing UNIFIL. However, this scenario is highly unlikely, as Israel opposes any role for France or Spain in the monitoring force, deeming them untrustworthy.

It is now nearly certain that UNIFIL will not return, and Lebanon’s official channels are actively cooking up a replacement strategy, as they believe their army will need international support in the coming phase, which will be burdened with tasks and challenges in the south.