After Sanctions on Iran, Erdogan Faces a Difficult Equation

U.S. new sanctions on Iran place countries and companies continuing to deal with it at increasing risk, as Turkey faces a difficult equation due to its reliance on Iranian gas and its prior record of assisting Tehran in evading sanctions.

According to a report published by Israel's newspaper Makor Rishon, the sanctions announced by the United States against Iran do not target Tehran alone, but also include countries, banks, and companies that continue to assist it.

U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said Washington will adopt a "zero leakage" policy, threatening to cut off access to the dollar-based financial system for entities helping Iran transfer funds, sell energy, or evade sanctions. Among the countries forced to reassess their positions—alongside the traditional suspects like China and Russia—is Turkey.

According to news agencies, trade volume between Turkey and Iran reached approximately $5.5 billion in 2025. Economic relations between the two countries go beyond commodity trade, as Iran is also a major energy supplier for Turkey.

During the past year, Iran supplied Turkey with about 7.6 billion cubic meters of natural gas, representing nearly 13% of Turkey’s total gas imports. For an economy suffering from high inflation and heavy dependence on energy imports, any disruption in these supplies could lead to additional increases in energy costs.

But Ankara-Tehran relations have gone beyond conventional trade; over the past decade, Turkey was one of the key nodes in the pathways Iran used to circumvent parts of U.S. sanctions.

The case of Turkey’s state-owned Halkbank was among the most prominent examples. According to a U.S. indictment, revenues from Iranian oil and gas sales were deposited into accounts at the bank before part of the funds were transferred to gold and cash through foreign exchange companies and shell firms.

With tightened U.S. restrictions on gold trade, the network, according to U.S. allegations, used fake transactions to purchase food and medicine, aiming to disguise money transfers as permitted humanitarian activities under sanctions.

According to U.S. prosecutors, around $20 billion was funneled through this system. In recent years, the U.S. Department of the Treasury has continued imposing sanctions on companies and entities operating from Turkey, accusing them of aiding Iranian financial networks.

Ankara faces a more difficult equation

Makor Rishon notes that the situation may now be shifting, after Ankara had for years managed to walk a tightrope—maintaining economic ties with Iran, criticizing certain aspects of U.S. policy toward it, while remaining a NATO member and preserving access to the dollar-based financial system.

However, the "zero leakage" policy adopted by President Donald Trump’s administration aims to drastically narrow this space.

Under the new policy, a Turkish bank, shipping company, or commercial entity continuing to engage with Iran could face the risk of losing access to the U.S. dollar and the American financial system.

For most major Turkish companies, the choice between continuing business with Iran and maintaining access to the global financial system will not be an equal one—and precisely that imbalance is what the Trump administration seeks to achieve.

According to the newspaper, Trump does not need to send American troops to force Turkey to sever ties with Iran overnight; instead, making any deal with Tehran complex, costly, and risky enough will push Turkish companies and banks to make the decision themselves.

After years when Turkey’s borders served as a vital artery of Iran’s economy, President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan may ultimately find himself compelled to assess the value of his relationship with Tehran and the level of risk he is willing to bear to sustain it.