Deal Over Allies' Heads: What Does Washington Plan with North Korea?

The US administration is exploring the possibility of resuming direct dialogue with North Korea through phased nuclear arrangements. Amidst this, its allies, South Korea and Japan, fear that a limited deal with Kim Jong Un could freeze parts of the nuclear program without addressing the existing arsenal or missiles capable of threatening the region, while Washington has yet to receive a clear response from Pyongyang regarding a return to negotiations.

These potential moves come after the US midterm elections, which renewed interest within Washington in opportunities for diplomatic progress on foreign files. Meanwhile, North Korea intensified its military activity in recent days and expressed public reservations about resuming dialogue under previous US conditions.

A well-informed American political source familiar with consultations between the National Security Council and the State Department regarding the Korean Peninsula revealed that the options under consideration focus on testing Pyongyang's readiness to take initial verifiable nuclear steps, while maintaining the US's declared commitment to the complete denuclearization of North Korea.

He explained to "Erem News" that any phased approach requires defining what North Korea will commit to in the first phase, and how implementation will be verified, before discussing reciprocal measures that Washington might take.

There are currently no announced arrangements for a new meeting between Trump and Kim, although statements by administration officials confirm the US President's readiness for dialogue if suitable conditions arise.

Limits of Concessions
One of the issues raised is the possibility of starting negotiations with measures less extensive than the complete dismantling of the nuclear program, such as halting the production of fissile materials, suspending missile tests, or placing specific facilities under surveillance.

The American source clarified that distinguishing between freezing existing nuclear capabilities and preventing the development of additional capabilities would be necessary for any agreement; because suspending some activities does not automatically address the weapons and materials that Pyongyang already possesses.

He indicated that discussing reciprocal economic or diplomatic measures would remain linked to the nature of North Korean commitments and their verifiability, noting the necessity of separating the opening of communication channels from offering formal proposals for sanctions relief.

The path becomes more difficult following the position announced by Kim Yo-jong, sister of the North Korean leader, on November 4, when she emphasized that dialogue with the United States is not a necessity for her country. This coincided with the launch of new missiles and escalating disputes over US accusations regarding North Korean cyber activities.

The latest stance reflects Pyongyang's insistence on demanding that Washington abandon the condition of denuclearization, which clashes with the US's declared commitment and relevant international resolutions.

Trilateral Coordination
The prospects of phased negotiation raise questions among Asian allies regarding the guarantees that would accompany any understanding, especially if US attention focuses on stopping the development of intercontinental ballistic missiles, without addressing shorter-range systems that directly threaten Japan and South Korea.

During their meeting in Atlanta on October 30, the foreign ministers of the three countries reaffirmed their commitment to the complete denuclearization of North Korea, the implementation of UN Security Council sanctions, and countering activities that fund their nuclear and missile programs.

The American source stated that maintaining coordination with Seoul and Tokyo represents an essential element in evaluating diplomatic options, particularly regarding facility monitoring, the continuation of international sanctions, and ensuring that existing deterrence arrangements are not weakened.

He added that any negotiation addressing missile capabilities needs to handle the differences between threats facing US territory and those faced by the two allied nations, to prevent results from being limited to one aspect of the North Korean threat system.

These concerns gain additional importance after Beijing hosted a meeting yesterday Friday between senior Chinese and North Korean officials, who confirmed during it the continuation of strategic coordination, reflecting Pyongyang's ongoing openness to regional channels despite cool communication with Washington.