From Control to Attrition: A New Shift in Mali's Battles

The attack on an African Corps military convoy near the Niono region in central Mali reveals a new shift in the nature of confrontation in the Sahel. The conflict has moved toward targeting movement and supply routes in an area considered a strategic link between northern and southern Mali, making it highly sensitive for Malian forces and their partners.

Experts believe that the "Jama'at Nasr al-Islam wal Muslimin" (Group for the Support of Islam and Muslims) and other groups have increasingly relied on an attrition strategy through striking moving convoys, while the Malian army and the African Corps depend on air operations and reconnaissance.

These developments place Mali before a new test and reshape the equation of conflict in the Sahel region.

"More Complex"
In this context, expert in African strategic and security studies Idriss Ayat stated that the security landscape has entered a more complex phase compared to what happened in past years since President Assimi Goita took power, considering that this complexity differs from the common image presented by some media outlets and press.

Ayat added to "Erem News" that the complexity does not lie in the increase in the number of attacks, but rather in the nature of the relationship between offense and defense. He pointed out that looking at the map, the regions of Niono and Douentza are located in central Mali, within an area representing a link between northern and southern Mali. Therefore, controlling them means controlling movement and supply routes, which affects the deployment of Malian forces and the African Corps.

He clarified that what is happening consists of two simultaneous paths; the first is represented by the Malian army announcing precise strikes within Operation "Dogo Koloko," relying on reconnaissance and intelligence information, while the second path is represented by the "Jama'at Nasr al-Islam wal Muslimin," which shifted from attacking fixed positions, as it used to do previously, to targeting moving convoys, as happened near Niono.

Ayat indicated that what is happening is known as "attrition of control capacity," where the state possesses capabilities and aircraft and carries out strikes, but faces a jihadist organization that does not need to control a city to impose a security cost on it, but rather suffices with disrupting movement and targeting supply routes and convoys with the aim of paralyzing daily life.

He explained that the entry of the African Corps into the equation added another layer to the complex conflict, considering that its targeting does not mean that armed groups have become capable of defeating it militarily, but it proves that the Russian partnership did not remove Moscow from the nature of asymmetric warfare in the Sahel region, where its forces have become a direct target, just as French forces were in the past.

Ayat noted that the real shift in Mali lies not only in the transfer of battle to new areas, but in its transition from a battle for control over fixed positions to a battle for mobility and attrition capability. He pointed out that if "Jama'at Nasr al-Islam wal Muslimin" or Al-Qaeda can make convoys, supply routes, foreign forces, and even counter-operations like "Dogo Koloko" targets susceptible to attrition, then this will change the nature of the confrontation.

Ayat added that the nature of the situation in the Sahel region is completely different under this scenario, because the current complexity will make it difficult for the African Corps and Malian forces to continue fighting for longer periods, which represents the "attrition strategy" that armed groups are trying to achieve.