Iran Demands Guarantees Before Nuclear Concessions: Will Moscow's Mediation Succeed?

Amidst differing priorities between Washington and Tehran regarding the nuclear file, sanctions, and the Strait of Hormuz, Moscow intervenes in the mediation line with potential proposals related to enriched uranium, but questions escalate regarding its ability to provide guarantees that prevent the recurrence of military confrontation.

The prospects for negotiations between Iran and the United States return to the forefront of the regional scene, coinciding with Russian diplomatic moves aimed at reducing tension, amidst disagreements over the sequencing of steps required to reach a settlement that ends the risk of resuming war.

While attention turns to the future of Iran's nuclear program, particularly the stockpile of uranium enriched to 60%, a dilemma emerges regarding the extent of Tehran's readiness to make nuclear concessions before obtaining clear American guarantees that prevent it from facing new attacks.

The core issue revolves around the divergence in negotiating priorities; Washington focuses on addressing the nuclear file, while Tehran places lifting economic and maritime restrictions, resolving the Strait of Hormuz crisis, and obtaining security guarantees at the forefront of its demands, according to political readings and circulating information regarding ongoing contacts.

Moscow Enters the Crisis Line
Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov's visit to Tehran gains special importance, given Moscow's efforts to expand its diplomatic role in the Iranian-American crisis, and the possibility of proposing arrangements related to the nuclear program in exchange for American measures to ease tensions.

According to the Russian agency "TASS," Lavrov's talks include efforts by Moscow to reduce regional tensions, alongside meetings with Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian and Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi.

Lavrov is also scheduled to inform Iranian officials of the results of his consultations with representatives of the Gulf Cooperation Council countries in the Bahraini capital, Manama, indicating an attempt by Russia to link Iranian-American de-escalation with Gulf region security.

These moves raise questions about the nature of the Russian mission, whether it is limited to conveying messages between Washington and Tehran, or includes specific proposals to address nuclear, security, and economic issues.

The Guarantee Dilemma: What Does Tehran Want from Washington?
Sources close to the National Security and Foreign Policy Committee of the Iranian Parliament told "Erem News" that potential guarantees may include a declared American commitment not to launch new attacks throughout the duration of the understandings, establishing a mechanism to verify commitments, defining procedures for dealing with any breach, and linking nuclear steps with simultaneous economic and security actions.

The sources added that arrangements may include not targeting Iranian nuclear facilities, and establishing indirect communication channels to handle military incidents and prevent their transformation into open confrontation.

However, the most prominent problem, according to the sources, lies in the fact that the American pledge not to use force does not necessarily guarantee that Iran will not face Israeli attacks, raising the need for broader arrangements if the goal is to comprehensively prevent the recurrence of war.