Istanbul on Edge: Expert Reveals Why Another Disaster Looms

Murat Şahin, former Director of the İzmir Regional Directorate of Meteorology, issued a critical warning regarding potential flooding in Istanbul and the broader Marmara region. Having accurately forecasted the severe weather event that struck on Wednesday, October 14, Şahin indicated that the danger persists due to saturated soil conditions and an incoming deep low-pressure system.

Warning Issued Days Before Disaster

Şahin had alerted authorities and the public on October 10, prior to the catastrophic rains. He emphasized that Turkey was under the influence of a deep low-pressure system originating from Iceland, combined with a meteorological structure known as a "Cut-off Low" or "Cold Drop." This configuration resulted in precipitation exceeding 100 kilograms per square meter in Istanbul.

In his initial advisory, Şahin urged preparations for heavy and continuous rainfall affecting the Marmara, Aegean, and Western Mediterranean regions. He specifically called for cleaning stream beds and canals, opening drainage grates, and removing debris such as rubble that could obstruct water flow, citing risks of floods and overflows.

Risk of Additional Rainfall Volume

Following the destruction caused by the Wednesday storms, Şahin shared updated meteorological maps showing wind and temperature patterns at the 500 hPa level. He warned that if an additional 100 kilograms or more of rain falls on top of the already deposited volume, a new disaster could occur. The expert stated that such accumulation would likely lead to floods, overflows, and potential loss of life.

The meteorologist noted that the rainy weather is expected to continue for the next two to three days. He highlighted that the ground is currently fully saturated with water, pushing infrastructure to its limits. Consequently, any new load of precipitation poses a significant threat to safety and stability in the affected areas.

Alert for Entire Marmara Region

Şahin extended his call for vigilance to all provinces within the Marmara region. He advised local authorities to take urgent preventive measures, stating that dangerous meteorological conditions remain active. The risk of extreme rainfall, flooding, and overflow has increased further due to the prolonged nature of the weather system.

The former regional director stressed that every province must be on alert. His assessment indicates that the situation requires immediate action to mitigate the impact of the ongoing and anticipated precipitation, which threatens to exacerbate the damage already sustained by the megacity and surrounding areas.