Jet Fuel Shortage Threatens Collapse of NATO Defenses in Large-Scale Conflict

A new study supported by the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) has warned that alliance forces may face a sharp shortage of jet fuel during any future war in Europe, amid declining oil refining capabilities on the continent and the accelerating shift toward clean energy sources, which could weaken the alliance's military readiness.

The details of the study, published last September, were revealed by "Politico" on Thursday. The report stated that the needs of NATO's military aircraft could exceed available supplies if a large-scale military conflict erupts within the next decade, involving European member states and the arrival of military reinforcements from North America.

These warnings come amidst growing European concerns about the possibility of a direct military confrontation with Russia, following increased hybrid warfare activities and sabotage operations attributed to Moscow in recent months.

While alliance countries are pouring billions of euros into purchasing aircraft, tanks, missiles, and drones, the study indicates that securing fuel supplies could become one of the most significant obstacles to the ability of military forces to wage a long-term war.

A senior NATO military official said that securing fuel is an essential element of military readiness, stressing the alliance's need for reliable energy supplies to ensure its deterrence and defense capabilities, even if this requires prioritizing military needs over civilian consumption.

Declining Refineries Exacerbate Concerns

Researchers attributed part of the potential supply crisis to the carbon emission reduction policies adopted by European countries and their allies, considering that these policies contributed to accelerating the closure of a number of oil refineries, which form an important part of the infrastructure necessary to secure military fuel reserves.

Data from "FuelsEurope" and the European Commission show that approximately a quarter of the continent's oil refineries have closed since 2009, leading to a decline in regional refining capacities. Meanwhile, around 70 operating refineries remain capable of meeting the European market's fuel needs, including jet fuel.

Millions of Tons Deficit by 2035

Although the study does not necessarily represent NATO's official position, it is based on research conducted by the Alliance's Centre of Excellence for Energy Security, headquartered in the Lithuanian capital Vilnius, which provides strategic and operational analyses related to energy security to member states.

Researchers warned that the European fuel supply system could reach its maximum capacity in the event of a large-scale war within the territories of NATO's European countries, with the activation of Article 5 of the alliance treaty and the deployment of large forces from North America.

They pointed out that even imposing restrictions on civilian consumption would not be sufficient, in the worst plausible scenarios, to balance supply and demand starting from the mid-2030s, unless prior measures are taken to address the shortage.

According to the study's estimates, acquiring all available jet fuel supplies for civilian use would not be enough to cover the alliance's military needs, as the deficit is expected to reach approximately 4.7 million tons by 2035, rising to 50 million tons by 2050.

Recommendations to Avoid Fuel Crisis

Despite these projections, researchers believe that avoiding the crisis remains possible, provided that alliance countries act quickly to enhance fuel supply security.

The recommendations include maintaining existing oil refining capabilities, expanding strategic fuel reserves, accelerating the production of alternative aviation fuels, diversifying import sources, and improving fuel consumption efficiency within the armed forces.