Libération: Netanyahu tightens grip on Likud amid extreme rightward shift

The significance of Israel's Likud primary elections goes beyond selecting candidates for the upcoming parliamentary list; their results are shaping a broader political battle that could determine the future of Benjamin Netanyahu and his ruling coalition, amid declining public approval and deepening divisions within Israeli society.

According to a lengthy report by French newspaper Libération, Netanyahu, who has served as prime minister for nearly 19 years, faces one of his toughest electoral challenges yet, amid widespread accusations over responsibility for the security failure preceding the October 7, 2023 attack, as well as criticism over his inability to achieve political progress following military operations against Hamas and Hezbollah militias.

According to Libération, opinion polls indicate Likud’s share may drop from 32 seats in the 2022 elections to between 22 and 24 seats in the next parliament, facing strong competition from former IDF chief Gadi Eisenkot.

Netanyahu secures influence within the party

The newspaper notes that Netanyahu has used his influence within Likud over recent months to strengthen his hold on the party, having secured the right to nominate nine members for top positions on the list—ensuring, among other things, slots for Defense Minister Israel Katz and Foreign Minister Gideon Saar.

This leaves little room for party members to choose list members, leading to fierce competition among candidates, with expectations that more than half of the current Knesset members will be excluded from the next parliament.

The report quotes Avi Bushinski, a political analyst and former political advisor to Netanyahu, stating that over 50% of current Knesset members may have to follow the next parliament via television screens.

Bushinski argues that Netanyahu does not want to promote figures who could become future rivals within the party, saying the prime minister realized it was not in his interest to “appoint or promote someone who might stab him in the back one day” and demand his resignation.

He adds that the calculations go beyond the elections themselves, as Netanyahu seeks to ensure a larger number of loyalists during the coalition negotiations following the October 27 elections, believing that increasing the number of supporters within the party reduces the likelihood of defections.

Internal competition pushes Likud further right

Libération observes that the intensity of internal competition carries another risk: an increase in political extremism, as several candidates in their campaigns have focused on attacking the left, criticizing the judiciary, calling for continued military operations, and defending the annexation of parts of the West Bank.

Notable names drawing attention in the primaries include Amir Ohana, the outgoing Knesset speaker and advocate for West Bank settlements, and Yariv Levin, the justice minister linked to the judicial reform plan that triggered massive protests in 2023.

Also emerging are Almog Cohen, a defector from the far-right, Amichai Chikli, a proponent of alliances with Europe’s far-right parties, and Tali Gutlev, who enjoys popularity among the party base due to her sharp statements and radical stances.

"The far right has infiltrated Likud"

The paper notes that changes within Likud have prompted Israeli analysts to warn of an expanding gap between the party and the far right.

The report cites journalist David Ishakharov from Haaretz, who stated that the far right is no longer confined to the parties of Itamar Ben-Gvir and Bezalel Smotrich, arguing that "Likud itself, once considered the stronghold of moderate Israeli conservatism, has now become its broadest and most influential expression."

It also quotes Ben Dror Yamin, writer for Yedioth Ahronoth, who said the danger is no longer just about Likud officials joining Ben-Gvir, but that "Ben-Gvir’s political line has already seeped into Likud."

At the same time, the party seeks to capitalize on deep-rooted rejection within its base of the left and Arab parties, attempting to frame the upcoming elections as a confrontation between Netanyahu’s camp and his opponents.

Libération highlighted a message posted by the party on Channel 14, which read: "Either us, or a team relying on Arab parties, Mansour Abbas, Democrats, and Yair Golan."

Division

Another indicator of the upcoming campaign’s nature is Likud’s adoption of responsibility for a large poster displayed in Tel Aviv, showing New York Mayor Zehran Meddani alongside Iran’s Supreme Leader, Turkey’s president, and Hezbollah’s leader, in an attempt to portray the American politician as part of a broader threat to Netanyahu.

The poster bore the message: "They want to defeat Netanyahu. Don’t let them win," before Netanyahu himself shared it.

Libération concludes that these signs early on outline an election battle built on polarization, fear, and political identity, as Israeli society remains deeply divided since the October 7 attack and the wars that followed.