NATO Presence in Eastern Europe Tops Russian Reservations in Ukraine War End Negotiations

Russia has renewed its demands to reduce the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) military presence in Eastern Europe, conditioning an agreement to end the war in Ukraine on withdrawing forces and bases to 1997 borders and stopping any new expansion or military activity in Ukraine and other regions.

Moscow presented its list of demands during closed negotiations with US President Donald Trump's envoys this week regarding ending the war, according to the "New York Times" citing informed sources. These sources noted that the Russians re-raised the same old demands, sometimes in nearly identical wording, in an attempt to achieve broader gains after five years of war.

Moscow's demands appeared in a document distributed by Russian officials during this week's negotiations, according to a copy obtained by the "New York Times" from one of the participants in the talks.

Another person familiar with the negotiations confirmed the authenticity of the document, which shows that Russian President Vladimir Putin has barely changed his core objectives despite more than 20 months of diplomatic efforts by the Trump administration to end the conflict.

Russia's demands to withdraw NATO forces from its eastern flank in Poland and the Baltic states (Estonia, Latvia, and Lithuania) place European security at the heart of negotiations related to Ukraine, revealing the goal behind Putin's public statements. The Russian president has consistently insisted on addressing what he calls the "root causes" of the war, referring to Moscow's broad objections to both NATO and Ukraine before stopping the fighting.

The document repeats, similar to Russia's 2021 demands prior to the invasion, the necessity of withdrawing NATO forces and military bases to the alliance's 1997 borders, before it began expanding into Central and Eastern Europe.

This step would weaken the ability of the most threatened members of the alliance, such as Poland and the former Soviet Baltic states, to defend themselves.

Economic Incentives
The document also highlights that economic incentives offered by Trump's envoys, Jared Kushner and Steve Witkoff, to Putin have so far failed to extract concessions from Moscow.

Critics argue that the United States risks enabling Putin's ongoing efforts to reimpose a sphere of influence dating back to the Soviet era, stretching from Europe to Central Asia.

Russia's adoption of this broad stance comes as Putin prepares to meet Trump next week in the Chinese city of Shenzhen, on the sidelines of the annual Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation (APEC) forum meeting. This will be the second meeting between the two presidents during Trump's second term.

The Russian document, dated November 10, provides new details about the Kremlin's position in the Abu Dhabi talks this week.

Warsaw Pact Model
This was the first time since February that US, Russian, and Ukrainian officials met face-to-face, and the first session of its kind since the Trump administration launched a new initiative this autumn to address Russian demands regarding European security within Ukraine negotiations.

The document represents Russia's opening position in the negotiations, but Russian officials indicated during the talks that Putin remains willing to show some flexibility, according to the two people familiar with the negotiations who spoke to the "New York Times," on condition of anonymity due to the sensitivity of the discussions.

However, Russian officials clarified in Abu Dhabi that they view the Cold War, and the alliance led by the Soviet Union then known as the "Warsaw Pact," as a model for what Europe could look like after the end of the Ukraine war. During the decades following World War II, Europe became the focal point of confrontation between two nuclear superpowers, amidst a constant threat of war breaking out on the continent.

Yet, Russians said during the Abu Dhabi talks that dividing Europe at that time into separate spheres of influence for the United States and the Soviet Union, along with the accompanying communication channels and understandings between the sides, actually contributed to reducing the risk of conflict, according to people who attended those discussions.

It remains unclear to what extent Moscow will succeed in convincing other parties of this approach.

A US official said that Witkoff and Kushner told the Russians that many things have changed since December 2021, when Moscow demanded a new treaty that would end most NATO military activities in large parts of Eastern and Central Europe.

The official, who spoke on condition of anonymity due to the sensitivity of the negotiations, added that the Americans urged the Russians to look to the future, noting that Trump's envoys are open to new proposals from Moscow including concrete steps to de-escalate tensions.

Trump's envoys are currently working to dispel concerns that they might negotiate a broad-scale deal with Putin independently of Europe and Ukraine.

Following the Abu Dhabi meeting, Kushner and Witkoff traveled to Moscow to meet Putin on Thursday.

Long-term Security Arrangements
During the portion of the meeting captured by cameras, Kushner told Putin that Russia, Ukraine, Europe, and the United States had already made progress on issues related to "long-term security." But Putin later told the Americans that Russia's 2021 proposal regarding reducing NATO's military presence still reflects "our vision for the pillars of an indivisible security architecture," according to Russian Presidential Foreign Policy Advisor Yuri Ushakov, who reported on the meeting.

From Moscow, the US envoys traveled to Dublin on Thursday, where they briefed Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky on the results of their talks. Kushner said after the meeting: "We cannot conclude this agreement without Europeans being present at the negotiating table."

The fact that Russia's opening position on European security remained largely unchanged this week compared to five years ago reflects the scale of the challenge facing reaching a settlement that pushes the Russian president to end the war.

The document outlining Russia's position this week does not bear an official signature; it is what is known in diplomatic terms as an "informal paper," used to present one party's viewpoint without adopting it as an official proposal.

The document repeats Russia's demands submitted in December 2021, stating that NATO countries must exclude any further expansion of the alliance, as well as any military activity in Ukraine and other areas in Eastern Europe, the South Caucasus, and Central Asia.

The document shows that Putin may have hardened some positions rather than retreating from them. In 2021, Russia demanded the alliance abandon "nuclear sharing" arrangements, which have long allowed US allies in Europe to benefit from the protection provided by American nuclear weapons.

European Concerns
Now, the document indicates that Moscow also wants France and Britain to rule out the possibility of using their nuclear weapons to protect other European countries, an option that has seen increasing debate in Europe over the past year, partly due to concerns about the extent of Trump's willingness to defend NATO allies.

The document also seeks to halt aid provided to Ukraine, stipulating the end of "supplying any type of Western weapons, equipment, and military products to Ukraine." It also states that Russia will not agree to Ukraine joining the European Union unless Kyiv refrains from participating in the bloc's common defense policy.

In recent days, amid reports of the tough Russian positions raised in Abu Dhabi, a number of European leaders rushed to reject them, considering them non-negotiable.

Polish Prime Minister Donald Tusk said on Thursday that accepting Russia's conditions would mean a direct threat to Poland's security. Tusk added in Dublin: "It is clear that these conditions are unacceptable not only for Ukraine but for Europe above all, and certainly for countries like Poland."