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World
Classified U.S. assessments reveal Iran has operational access to 30 of 33 missile sites along the Strait of Hormuz, contradicting Trump administration claims of total military destruction.
Classified American intelligence assessments published by the New York Times paint a starkly different picture from the public declarations of President Donald Trump and his Defense Secretary. According to the documents, Iran has recovered a substantial portion of its military capabilities, including access to underground missile sites, challenging the narrative that its armed forces were annihilated.
The secret evaluations indicate that Tehran maintains operational access to 30 out of 33 missile positions lining the Strait of Hormuz. This concentration of firepower raises alarms about Iran's ability to threaten U.S. warships and oil tankers transiting the critical waterway. Intelligence officials, speaking on condition of anonymity, said the sites include mobile launch platforms that can relocate missiles, and in some cases, missiles can be fired directly from fixed installations. Only three locations remain fully inaccessible to Iranian forces.
Beyond the coastal positions, the intelligence estimates that Iran has restored approximately 90% of its underground missile storage and launch facilities across the country. These sites are now functioning "partially or fully," according to sources familiar with the assessments, which rely on satellite imagery and multiple surveillance methods. The recovery extends to mobile launch platforms, with Iran retaining roughly 70% of its pre-war inventory, alongside about 70% of its missile stockpile. That arsenal includes ballistic missiles capable of striking regional nations and shorter-range cruise missiles.
The data, which dates to no more than a month after the Pentagon announced the results of military operations, underscores a gap between secret assessments and public political statements. While Trump and Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth have declared the Iranian military "destroyed" and "no longer a threat," the intelligence suggests the decline in Iranian capabilities is far less severe than officially proclaimed.
The White House pushed back, insisting the Iranian military has been "crushed." Officials within the Iranian administration described the situation as unsustainable, adding that anyone questioning the degradation of Iran's army is "either delusional or a mouthpiece for the Revolutionary Guard."
In testimony Tuesday before a House Appropriations subcommittee, General Dan Caine, Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, stated: "We have sufficient munitions for what we are tasked with now." Pentagon spokesman Sean Parnell echoed this, telling the newspaper: "We have executed numerous successful operations across combatant commands, while ensuring the U.S. military possesses a broad arsenal of capabilities to protect our people and interests."
The New York Times previously reported that the United States expended vast quantities of munitions during the conflict, including roughly 1,100 long-range cruise missiles, over 1,000 Tomahawk missiles, and more than 1,300 Patriot interceptor missiles—equivalent to years of military production. Rebuilding these stockpiles will take years given limited industrial capacity, even as companies like Lockheed Martin plan to boost annual Patriot interceptor production from 650 to 2,000.
The assessments warn that the Strait of Hormuz, through which about one-fifth of global oil consumption passes, remains a potential flashpoint. The U.S. maintains a naval presence of more than 20 warships in the region, according to Central Command data. Despite the strikes against it, Iran retains considerable military capability, reopening debate over political claims that its power had completely collapsed.
