Washington Weighs Baltic Options as Lithuania Paves Way for Deeper US Presence Near Russia

The Lithuanian Parliament granted broad support to a constitutional amendment that lifts the ban imposed over three decades ago on the presence of weapons of mass destruction and foreign military bases in the country. This move coincides with Vilnius's offer to finance the cost of a permanent American base on its territory and the return of large numbers of US troops to Lithuania in recent weeks.

106 MPs voted in favor of the amendment, against 18 opponents and 6 abstentions, while its final adoption requires a second vote on January 12, 2027, and the support of at least 94 MPs.

The amendment deletes Article 137 of the Constitution, which prohibits hosting nuclear weapons and foreign bases, thereby providing Lithuania with a legal basis later to participate fully in NATO's deterrence arrangements.

Washington Weighs Baltic Options
Information obtained by "Erem News" from a US diplomatic source at the State Department indicates that communications with Vilnius during the past month included expanding the permanent US military presence, longer-term use of Lithuanian military facilities, enhancing air and missile defense capabilities, and storing equipment and ammunition necessary for US forces operating on NATO's eastern flank.

According to the source, the Lithuanian side requested that sites near Babrady and Siauliai be included in a US study of force requirements in the Baltic region, along with discussions on improving infrastructure to receive aircraft, troops, and armored units more quickly during crises. Meanwhile, the issue of hosting nuclear weapons remains tied to subsequent political decisions within the United States and NATO.

These contacts follow Lithuanian President Gitanas Nauseda's announcement on September 22 of the arrival of a new batch of US troops in his country, after the United States has maintained a rotating armored battalion of about 1,000 personnel since 2019.

Lithuanian Prime Minister Ingrida Simonyte confirmed on Tuesday her country's readiness to bear the cost of establishing a permanent US base if Washington agrees to the proposal.

European policy expert Enrique Serbito told "Erem News" that the Lithuanian step is linked to reshaping the position of Baltic states within European defense, especially as Russian forces and military infrastructure approach Lithuania's borders via Kaliningrad and Belarus, and Vilnius's interest grows in removing legal restrictions limiting allied forces' participation on its soil.

Europe Expands Deterrence Options
The Lithuanian move comes amid growing European interest in nuclear deterrence. France conducted its first test of the upgraded M51.3 submarine-launched ballistic missile on October 6, as part of its program to modernize the French nuclear arsenal, while Germany and Poland continue to strengthen air defenses and ground forces on the alliance's eastern flank.

Poland holds particular significance in this file due to its location between Germany and Lithuania and its proximity to Kaliningrad; Warsaw has previously expressed interest in participating in NATO's nuclear deterrence arrangements. Deleting Article 137 brings Lithuania legally closer to the status quo in Poland, Latvia, Estonia, and Finland, whose constitutions lack similar prohibitions.

Serbito notes that expanding legal options in Eastern European countries gives NATO greater capacity to plan for military reinforcements, exercises, and the movement of aircraft and ships capable of carrying nuclear weapons, while granting the Baltic states a broader role in decisions related to deterring Russia.

Moscow Links Step to Kaliningrad
Meanwhile, information from a Russian diplomatic source close to the Kremlin indicates that Moscow has asked the Defense and Foreign Ministries to prepare a review of military changes in Lithuania, including the constitutional amendment, the proposed US base, and enhanced military infrastructure near Russian borders.

According to what the source reported to "Erem News," current Russian files include locations of US troop deployments in Lithuania, air defense capabilities, airports capable of receiving strategic aircraft, and facilities near the road connecting Belarus to Kaliningrad, with results to be submitted to the Russian Security Council as part of a broader review of the military situation in the Baltic region.

Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov warned on Tuesday that removing the Lithuanian ban and expanding US and NATO infrastructure near Russian borders increases tension in the region. Russian President Vladimir Putin had earlier hinted at the beginning of the month at using all available weapons to defend Russian territory, mentioning Kaliningrad in the context of tensions with NATO.

Russian political analyst Dmitry Abzalov told "Erem News" that Moscow will link any new US arrangements in Lithuania to the military situation in Kaliningrad and Belarus, and that the size of forces, quality of facilities, and capabilities hosted by Vilnius will become essential elements in Russia's calculations regarding the Baltic region.

The upcoming Lithuanian vote in January places the file before a decisive stage, as approving the amendment grants Vilnius wider freedom in negotiating with Washington and NATO regarding bases, military reinforcements, and deterrence arrangements, amidst an accelerating European race to strengthen defenses on the alliance's eastern borders.