Middle East oil exports surge past pre-war levels

Ship-tracking firm Kpler reports that crude oil exports from the Middle East surpassed pre-conflict benchmarks on September 24 and again between September 27 and 29. During these periods, daily export volumes ranged from 19.5 million to 22.5 million barrels.

Export volumes exceed historical averages

Prior to the onset of hostilities involving the United States, Israel, and Iran, average exports stood at 18 million barrels per day between March 2025 and February of this year. By October 1, the seven-day moving average for crude shipments had reached 18.5 million barrels daily.

Kpler’s data encompasses transit through the Strait of Hormuz and the Red Sea, port-based exports, and ship-to-ship transfers within the Gulf of Oman. Total shipments of crude oil, petroleum products, chemicals, and non-gas liquids averaged 22.4 million barrels per day during the final week of September.

Strait traffic faces renewed security threats

The figures exclude vessels that may have traversed the strait with their Automatic Identification System transponders disabled to evade detection. Before the conflict with Iran began on February 28, the waterway typically handled approximately 125 large commercial ships daily. This volume included oil tankers, gas carriers, bulk cargo vessels, and container ships, representing roughly 20 percent of global daily supplies of crude oil and liquefied natural gas.

Shipping information provider Marisec noted in a Saturday report that attacks on tankers continued within and around the Strait of Hormuz, with at least seven incidents recorded. The UK Maritime Trade Operations authority reported at least one attack per day in the Strait of Hormuz or the Gulf of Aden since October 2.

Marisec stated that commercial vessels crossing the strait face an "increasingly kinetic and unpredictable threat" due to a sharp recent rise in maritime traffic. The company added that current intelligence suggests the recent pattern of incidents may not necessarily indicate deliberate targeting of individually selected commercial ships.

Additionally, monthly outbound liquefied natural gas shipments from the Strait of Hormuz rose in September to their highest level since February.