From Coordinated Fighting to 'Guerrilla War': Hezbollah Shifts Strategy in Southern Lebanon

Israeli military officials said that "Hezbollah" has begun preparing for a "guerrilla war" in southern Lebanon instead of coordinated fighting between its units after suffering attacks, the latest being the engineering operation in the Ali al-Tahir mountain range.

The Israeli site "Walla" quoted military officials as saying, "Observations and intelligence reports already show that Hezbollah is learning and drawing lessons, attempting to activate guerrilla cells without being noticed."

The site stated: "The complex engineering operation in the Ali al-Tahir mountain range ended with the destruction of Hezbollah's infrastructure and the elimination of dozens of its fighters, but northern command officers warn that presence in Lebanese territory poses a long-term threat to the Israeli army and could come at a high cost."

It noted that, at this stage, the Israeli army has designated a "killing zone" separating areas under Israeli control from those under Hezbollah control, and Israeli Northern Command commander Colonel Ravi Milo confirmed that anyone entering it will be eliminated.

Israeli officials said: "Recent efforts have focused heavily on enhancing cooperation between ground forces, air forces, and military intelligence to precisely close fire loops, and this coordination has yielded tangible results on the ground."

Officials added: "The most critical question being raised in command circles is how long this situation will last, and what will happen when winter arrives, bringing harsh weather that directly affects ground and air force capabilities—this problem, which will soon worsen, can be described as a Lebanese dilemma."

According to Israeli assessments, senior Hezbollah leaders are awaiting developments on the Iranian front, as everything depends on Tehran, with the group possibly launching offensive operations once clarity emerges.

Israeli officials said: "It is clear to all within the security establishment that this Hezbollah is no longer the same as it was at the start of the war nearly three years ago—the organization is now run without strong, experienced leadership, and has been deprived of the massive budget it previously enjoyed with Iranian support."

Additionally, the group has lost a significant portion of its weapons arsenal, along with underground secret sites and seasoned field commanders who knew every route along the northern border.

Israeli estimates suggest that Hezbollah is also facing widespread public discontent in Lebanon, as well as major challenges in paying salaries and pensions to its members, supporting families of the fallen, and providing aid to wounded fighters and needy families.

Nevertheless, Israeli officials say that Hezbollah is working to strengthen its capabilities and preparing for the next phase, including increasing the use of drones, particularly those equipped with fiber-optic technology, which have proven effective in recent confrontations with the Israeli army.

Israeli assessments indicate this shift comes amid concerns that Hezbollah’s next moves may target Nabatiye, one of its key strongholds, while the Israeli army currently limits itself to conducting aerial strikes on the area.

Al-Araby News