The Next Force After UNIFIL: Which One Is Most Likely to Take Over the Mission?

A Lebanese government source clarified that President General Joseph Aoun's remarks in Friday's cabinet meeting about progress in the border and prisoner files during the seventh round of "Rome 2" talks under American mediation refer to Israel's negotiators being ready to discuss these issues, provided Lebanon first prepares all related materials, with solutions to emerge through consensus under U.S. sponsorship as part of a comprehensive package for implementing the framework agreement signed between the two countries on June 26 (June) last year. The Israeli delegation refrained from addressing other related matters such as expanding experimental zones, ceasefire enforcement including cessation of hostile acts, and establishing a timeline for phased Israeli withdrawal.

The source noted that Lebanon still relies on American intervention to pressure Israel into agreeing to expand the experimental zones, following consensus on a verification mechanism to confirm the absence of Hezbollah military presence in the two experimental towns of Zouk el-Fawqa, Froun, and Sour El-Gharbiyye.

He confirmed to Al-Sharq Al-Awsat that the time remaining until the eighth round of negotiations could allow Washington to pressure Israel into including expansion on its agenda, paving the way for agreement on its geographic borders.

Italy Most Likely

The source revealed that Italy is the most likely candidate to lead the verification mechanism, which also includes other countries after Washington and Tel Aviv agreed to exclude France, despite Lebanon's insistence on including it. Meanwhile, the U.S. administration prefers not to deploy its monitors on the ground and insists they oversee the verification process—ensuring the absence of Hezbollah fighters in the two experimental zones—from their embassy residence in Aoukour, coordinating with an American officer usually stationed at the Ministry of Defense in Zahlé, who supervises operations of the joint Lebanese-American military cooperation office responsible for supplying army needs and overseeing Lebanese officers undergoing training courses according to their specialties at U.S. military training institutions.

The source added that the Israeli delegation rejected including the cities of Bint Jbeil and Al-Khiam in the experimental zones due to their symbolic significance and strategic location overlooking northern Israel. It linked its withdrawal from these areas to Hezbollah's disarmament and its insistence on destroying any remaining tunnels in southern Lebanon, without mentioning tunnels located elsewhere—prompting Hezbollah to condition its acceptance of exclusive state control over arms on a phased implementation tied to a timeline for Israel’s withdrawal.

He emphasized that the government remains firm in its stance against forcibly disarming Hezbollah. Aoun had initiated dialogue with the group through leader of the "Vow to Resistance" bloc, Muhammad Raad, but hit a dead end due to Hezbollah's refusal to relinquish its weapons and its political use of threats and street mobilization campaigns targeting Aoun and Prime Minister Nouf Salam, leading to the suspension of talks—despite this being the only viable path for Hezbollah to surrender its arms, now obsolete after bringing disaster upon the country by supporting Gaza and Iran.

Filling the Southern Void

Regarding discussions on the post-UNIFIL phase at the end of this year, the source affirmed that the seventh round examined replacing UNIFIL with an alternative force, favoring a European-led mission open to reinforcement by military units from Islamic countries. He stated that this option remains the most viable, requiring no UN Security Council resolution—only consent from the countries implementing the framework agreement—to avoid obstruction by permanent members using veto power, which could block replacement of UNIFIL.

He stressed that Lebanon has not abandoned hope of reinforcing the European force with French-Spanish units and is currently working to convince Washington to lift its veto on their inclusion, given the pressure such support would exert on Israel toward the same goal. Notably, Spain’s presence alongside France and Italy in UNIFIL strengthens the effort, as both nations have historically supported the Lebanese Army in implementing Resolution 1701, with units from each being among the first to participate when Israel invaded Lebanon in 1978, enforcing UN Security Council Resolution 425.

Securing Borders

The source also addressed Israel’s readiness to discuss border stabilization, noting that the Lebanese negotiating team enlisted expert Nijib Msehhi and brought documentation and maps enabling Lebanon to uphold its borders based on the line established by the 1949 armistice agreement between the two countries, considered the international withdrawal line. This contrasts with the blue line, which Lebanon reached with the UN Special Envoy Terry Rod Larran after southern Lebanon’s liberation and Israel’s withdrawal on May 25 (May) 2000.

He confirmed that French Presidential Envoy Jean-Yves Le Drian reiterated during meetings in Beirut his country’s willingness to make the archives of the French Ministry of Foreign Affairs available to Lebanon, which contain documents and maps proving Lebanon’s borders up to the 1949 armistice line. He explained that Lebanon objected to the blue line because it does not fully establish its sovereignty over all its territory, as Israel retains 13 overlapping border points, seven of which were previously resolved, with Lebanon awaiting full withdrawal from the remaining ones.

He disclosed that, following government instructions at the time, Lebanon’s negotiating team had rejected a trade-off allowing Israel to keep six points in exchange for Israel relinquishing border areas within occupied Palestine, as Lebanon refuses to trade Palestinian land. Additionally, complications remain regarding the maritime border delimitation agreement between the two countries mediated by then-U.S. envoy Amos Hochstein, particularly Lebanon’s concession during General Michel Aoun’s presidency to cede rights to Line 29 in favor of Line 23. This contradicts documented reports backed by maps and coordinates prepared by the Lebanese Armed Forces, which enjoyed Hezbollah’s backing at the time—responding to Iran’s wishes and serving U.S. President Joe Biden’s interests, facilitated by leader of the Free Patriotic Movement, MP Gebran Bassil, whom his rivals accuse of playing a role to bolster U.S. mediation efforts aimed at lifting American sanctions imposed on him.

Mohammad Shqeer - Al-Sharq Al-Awsat