"The Silent Withdrawal".. Hezbollah Empties Its Warehouses to Avoid Clash with the Lebanese Army

Lebanese political and military sources revealed that the Hezbollah militia has begun preparing a field plan to deal with the first phase of the expected Israeli withdrawal from a number of experimental areas in southern Lebanon, based on transferring remaining weapons and contents of military headquarters located within those areas to other sites, most notably the Zahrani area, before the entry of Lebanese army units.

The sources told "Erem News": The party's leadership has settled its option not to enter into any confrontation with the Lebanese army, realizing that any clash with the military institution would put it in direct confrontation with the state and Lebanese public opinion, and would give Israel and the United States a pretext to stop the withdrawal path and maintain their occupation of the border areas.

They added that the Lebanese army, for its part, does not wish to be drawn into an internal confrontation with the party, and considers that the success of the deployment must be achieved with the least possible friction, in order to preserve internal stability and the unity of the military institution; which opens the door to undeclared understandings that allow the transfer of field control without a clash.

This data comes as preparations continue for the upcoming Rome round of negotiations between Lebanon and Israel, amid an atmosphere described by sources as "cautiously positive," despite Israel continuing its operations of shelling, bombing, and burning forests in southern Lebanon, in an attempt to maintain military pressure until the last moment.

Rome.. From Negotiation to Implementation

Informed political sources confirmed to "Erem News" that preparations have begun between the various parties to discuss the files of the Israeli withdrawal, the deployment of the Lebanese army, the distribution of military and civilian tasks, and the mechanisms for verifying that the areas from which the withdrawal will take place are free of any military presence belonging to Hezbollah.

They pointed out that official Lebanon was notified of the date for the convening of the Rome negotiations, but has not yet received any final data regarding the villages or towns that will constitute the first experimental phase, which reflects the continuation of disagreement over the mechanisms of implementation more than disagreement over the principle itself.

According to the sources, the success of this phase will determine the future of the entire agreement; because any failure will give Israel a justification for insisting on the continuation of its military presence inside Lebanese territory.

What Will Hezbollah Transfer?

Military sources revealed to "Erem News" that the plan the party is working on is not limited to withdrawing personnel, but includes transferring the military infrastructure present inside the areas nominated for deployment.

According to the sources, the transfer process includes medium and small ammunition warehouses, command, control and communications rooms, launch platforms and sites previously used or prepared for use, observation and reconnaissance points, in addition to documents and technical equipment related to operations management.

They added that the goal of this step is to prevent the Lebanese army from reaching sites containing military equipment of the party, and to avoid placing the military institution before a sensitive test that might force it to confiscate that equipment or enter into a direct confrontation with party elements.

The military sources suggest that the largest part of these capabilities will be transferred to the Zahrani area, which has become over the past months one of the most prominent areas of military repositioning for the party after the Israeli strikes that targeted large parts of the south of the Litani.

A Test for the State.. Not for Israel Alone

The political sources believe that the essence of the next phase is not only about the Israeli withdrawal, but about measuring the ability of the Lebanese state to impose its authority within areas that were for many years practically subject to Hezbollah's military influence.

They add that the Lebanese army will not only be required to raise the flag and set up barriers, but also to consolidate its presence inside the villages, verify that the sites it receives are free of any military infrastructure, and submit periodic reports to the international monitoring committee regarding the results of the deployment.

In return, Hezbollah realizes that preventing the army from performing this task would lead to the collapse of the negotiations, and would place it in the position of the party obstructing the restoration of state sovereignty, so it chose, as the sources say, to withdraw its military tools before the army arrives, instead of confronting it.

Will the Experiment Succeed?

Despite the positive atmosphere, doubts remain regarding the Israeli position, as Tel Aviv has not yet provided a clear commitment to a full withdrawal timetable, and links any field step to the extent of its conviction that the Lebanese army has succeeded in preventing Hezbollah's return to the areas the Israeli army will leave.

The political sources believe that Israel will try to use the results of the experimental phase to determine the form of the subsequent phases, while Hezbollah will try to maintain its military capabilities outside the scope of those areas, allowing it to avoid a clash with the army on the one hand, and preserve its military structure on the other hand.

The sources conclude that the experimental areas may indeed turn into the first practical test of the relationship between the Lebanese army and Hezbollah in years, but it will not be a test of the army's deployment alone, but rather of the extent of the party's readiness to take a step back before the state, even if in a tactical and temporary manner, after the military and political transformations in the south imposed equations that were not on the table before the last war.

Erem News