Armenia's June Elections Highlight Growing US-Russia Influence Battle in the Caucasus

Armenia is entering a highly sensitive political and geopolitical phase as it approaches its parliamentary elections scheduled for June 7, according to The Times. The country, located in the South Caucasus, is witnessing escalating rivalry between Moscow and Washington over its future, while Yerevan seeks to accelerate its distancing from Russia and open up to the European Union and the United States.

The Times reports that Armenia, which has maintained close economic and military ties with Moscow since the Soviet Union's collapse in 1991, has become a new arena for great power competition. This shift follows practical steps taken by Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan's government to strengthen relations with the West and pursue EU membership.

Russia has increasingly warned against Armenia's European orientation. The newspaper cited Russian President Vladimir Putin comparing Armenia's EU path to the trajectory that preceded the war in Ukraine, signaling a possible escalation in Moscow-Yerevan relations.

The report also revealed that Moscow sent an official message to the Armenian government threatening to freeze or halt exports of gas, oil, and low-cost raw diamonds if Armenia continues its efforts to join the EU. Armenia heavily depends on Russian energy, having imported over 80% of its gas needs from Russia last year.

Russia has already employed economic pressure tools by imposing restrictions on Armenian imports, including brandy, wine, and flowers, later expanding to limit certain Armenian fruits and vegetables.

In a more severe tone, Dmitry Medvedev, Russia’s former president and current deputy chairman of the Security Council, warned that Pashinyan is leading Armenia toward the "sad path" Ukraine took, as he described it.

Conversely, the United States has shown increasing political support for Pashinyan's government. US President Donald Trump publicly endorsed the Armenian prime minister ahead of the upcoming elections, stating that he shares Pashinyan’s vision for "peace and prosperity" in the South Caucasus.

This endorsement coincided with US Secretary of State Marco Rubio’s visit to Yerevan, where the US and Armenia signed a strategic partnership agreement. Additional accords were made regarding critical minerals and a new transportation corridor through southern Armenia connecting Azerbaijan to the Nakhchivan region, a key geographic ally of Turkey.

The US named this initiative the "Trump Road to International Peace and Prosperity," reflecting Washington’s intent to establish a long-term economic and strategic presence in the region amid waning Russian influence in former Soviet republics.

European leaders, including French President Emmanuel Macron, participated in the first EU-Armenia summit held in Yerevan in May. This event was viewed as direct political backing for Pashinyan’s government and the ruling Civil Contract party ahead of the elections.

During the summit, Pashinyan stated that Armenia would be "happy and excited" to receive a formal invitation to join the EU in the future. Public opinion polls show rising support within Armenia for the European path.

A survey conducted by the Washington-based International Republican Institute found that three out of four Armenians favor EU membership. Meanwhile, Pashinyan’s party leads voting intentions with 32%, compared to only 6% for his main rival, the Strong Armenia party led by Armenian-Russian businessman Samvel Karapetyan.

The Times noted that political estrangement between Yerevan and Moscow accelerated after Russia refrained from providing effective military support to Armenia during the 2023 war with Azerbaijan over Nagorno-Karabakh. This prompted Pashinyan to reassess the historic alliance with the Kremlin.

Since then, Armenia has taken consecutive steps to distance itself from Moscow, including joining the International Criminal Court, which issued an arrest warrant for Putin, and hinting at withdrawal from the Russia-led Collective Security Treaty Organization.

Simultaneously, Pashinyan is advancing a historic peace agreement with Azerbaijan, following Armenia’s abandonment of claims to Nagorno-Karabakh. This accord could lead to reopening borders closed since the 1990s with both Azerbaijan and Turkey.

Despite diplomatic rupture, Turkey and Armenia have resumed direct trade relations.

The Kremlin has intensified media campaigns against Armenia’s leadership in recent weeks, employing propaganda tactics previously used against Ukraine. Margarita Simonyan, head of the Kremlin-backed RT network, labeled Pashinyan a "drug addict," remarks that sparked widespread controversy within Armenia.

Additionally, the May visit of Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky to Yerevan angered Russia, which accused Armenia of hosting a "terrorist," according to Moscow’s expression.

Despite mounting Russian pressure, Pashinyan stated that the Armenian people must have an "alternative" between remaining in the Russia-led Eurasian Economic Union or moving toward the European Union. He criticized Russia for relying on threats rather than convincing Armenians of what it can offer them.