Bolton: Trump faces two stark choices on Iran strategy

Former US National Security Advisor John Bolton has laid out only two viable paths for President Donald Trump in dealing with Iran, arguing that accepting a gradual diplomatic resolution would set a dangerous precedent. In an op-ed for the Washington Post, Bolton asserted that military action is essential to restore deterrence, warning that a soft exit would empower Tehran to open and close the Strait of Hormuz at will, potentially branding Trump in history as an "American Anthony Eden."

Bolton accused Trump of walking into a "military trap" of his own making regarding Iran. He described the president as eager to strike a deal that would allow him to declare victory, yet simultaneously fearful of signing a nuclear agreement resembling Barack Obama's, which would invite harsh criticism. This tension, Bolton noted, was reflected in Trump's recent dismissal of Iran's response to a framework for ending the war, which he labeled "completely unacceptable."

The roots of the current impasse

The former official attributed the current stalemate directly to Trump's decisions, which he said lacked proper groundwork. According to Bolton, the president launched US-Israeli strikes without explaining to the American people the justifications for using military force—whether to achieve regime change, eliminate the nuclear and terrorist threat, or dismantle Tehran's military capabilities.

Bolton also criticized the administration for failing to brief Congress or consult with NATO allies, Gulf states, or friends in the Pacific and Indian Ocean regions that rely entirely on Middle Eastern oil. This approach, he argued, contrasted sharply with the strategy George H.W. Bush employed before Operation Desert Storm in 1991.

Furthermore, Bolton pointed out that Trump did not coordinate with opposition forces inside Iran, despite the country's economic crises and widespread protests following the death of Mahsa Amini. He noted that a broad segment of Iranian youth rejects the regime's radical ideology.

Military success, unfinished business

While acknowledging partial military successes—including Operation Freedom to reopen the Strait of Hormuz—Bolton argued the core problem is a failure to finish the job. He claimed Trump stopped halfway, waiting for a diplomatic exit from the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps, a move Tehran rejects as it seeks time to rebuild its military, nuclear, and terrorist networks from the rubble.

Bolton outlined two options consistent with US national security. The first is to declare the ceasefire—repeatedly violated by the regime—over, and resume destroying the tools of Iranian state power, crushing the entire military machine while American forces remain massed in the region.

The second option is to militarily reopen the Strait of Hormuz to trade with Gulf Arab states while maintaining a comprehensive blockade on Iranian ports and expanding economic pressure to include Caspian Sea ports.

Bolton concluded that Iranian hegemony in the region is unacceptable for both Gulf states and Washington. He warned that any gradual diplomatic resolution would encourage Tehran to use the strait as a pressure lever it can manipulate at will, raising or lowering tensions according to its interests. Restoring deterrence, he stressed, requires active efforts to destroy the regime's offensive capabilities, including fast boats, anti-ship missiles, and drones that threaten maritime commerce.