Brazil Between Lula's Fourth Term and Right-Wing Ambitions

Brazilian elections are witnessing critical hours dominated by fierce competition between current President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva and Senator Flávio Bolsonaro, the son of former President Jair Bolsonaro, whom Lula defeated four years ago.

Lula da Silva and his rival Flávio Bolsonaro participated on Saturday in the final round of electoral movements aimed at winning over voters through massive rallies in the crucial state of São Paulo, amid a race characterized by polarization, scandals, and exchanges of personal attacks.

The two candidates stand on opposite political poles, presenting divergent visions regarding several issues, including ways to combat organized crime and the nature of the relationship Brazil, Latin America's largest country, should establish with US President Donald Trump's administration.

Lula and Brazilian Sovereignty
Eighty-year-old veteran leftist politician Lula da Silva seeks to win a fourth and final term, making the defense of Brazilian sovereignty a central pillar of his campaign, according to a report by "Euronews."

Lula warned voters that Brazil's sovereignty is at stake given the pressures exerted by the United States, and he repeatedly cautioned Washington against interfering in Brazilian elections.

Last year, the United States imposed 50% tariffs on Brazilian goods, citing among other reasons the trial of former President Jair Bolsonaro, a close ally of Trump.

At the beginning of this year, Washington imposed a new package of tariffs, justifying the move by unfair trade practices despite recording a trade surplus, and classified Brazil's largest drug trafficking networks as foreign terrorist organizations shortly after Senator Flávio Bolsonaro visited the White House.

Lula opposed both measures and made defending Brazilian sovereignty one of the main pillars of his campaign.

Days before the vote, Lula's campaign launched a Portuguese version of Bad Bunny's song "Lo que le pasó a Hawaii," which evokes the US colonization of Hawaii as a model to be avoided.

Bolsonaro and the Bet on Security
In contrast, 45-year-old Senator Flávio Bolsonaro enters the presidential race representing the opposition, based on a program centered on tough security policies and fiscal austerity.

Flávio is the son of former President Jair Bolsonaro, a close ally of Donald Trump, who is serving a 27-year prison sentence for orchestrating an attempted coup following his failed bid to convince Brazilians to re-elect him in 2022.

After weeks of intensive electoral tours across Brazil, the candidates showcased their final cards on Saturday; Flávio Bolsonaro held a rally in Rio de Janeiro, while Lula concluded his campaign in São Paulo.

Lula's last rally in the city of São Paulo saw notable attendance, with supporters raising slogans such as "Lula President Again" and "Brazil Belongs to Brazilians" on shirts and banners.

As for Flávio Bolsonaro, he participated in a rally of motorcycle crowds about 400 kilometers away in the state of São Paulo, before concluding his day with a final electoral rally in Rio de Janeiro.

Flávio's electoral festivals feature large American flags and giant balloons shaped like US President Donald Trump, who does not endorse the senator but has confirmed he is watching the Brazilian elections "closely."

Jair Bolsonaro's son focuses his campaign on tightening security policies and fiscal austerity, while also directing sharp criticism at Lula, describing him as "incompetent," and highlighting rising living costs.

If he wins, Brazil will join a group of Latin American countries, including Argentina, Chile, Colombia, Costa Rica, and Peru, that shifted right in their recent elections and chose governments with positions converging with Trump.

Scandals and Personal Attacks
The electoral competition took place in highly polarized conditions within a politically divided country, where scandals and personal attacks overshadowed programs, policies, and electoral promises, as each camp sought to attract undecided voters.

During the campaign, it emerged that Flávio Bolsonaro is under investigation for corruption suspicions related to the financing of the biographical film "Dark Horse," which depicts his father's life, a project funded by suspended banker Daniel Vorcaro.

Vorcaro himself is being investigated in one of the country's biggest financial scandals, involving numerous figures in power, and the case caused a public dispute within the Supreme Court after some judges were linked to Vorcaro.

Both sides also resorted to extensive digital campaigns, exploiting slips of the tongue, accusations, and rumors from the opponent, quickly turning them into carefully designed videos or AI-generated images for dissemination on social media platforms.

Towards a Second Round
Twelve candidates are participating in the presidential elections scheduled for October 4, although estimates indicate that only Lula da Silva and Flávio Bolsonaro have real chances of reaching the presidency.

The number of registered voters in Brazil is approximately 160 million, and they are set to choose, along with the president, lower house parliamentarians, state governors, and some senators.

According to opinion polls, neither candidate will be able to secure victory in the first round scheduled for Sunday, as Lula and Bolsonaro are closely tied in results, making a second round, scheduled for October 25, almost certain.