Ethiopia’s Renaissance Dam Operational Amid Egypt, Sudan Water Pact Demand

Bashir Abdel Fattah, a researcher at the Al-Ahram Center for Political and Strategic Studies, and political writer and analyst Abdel Shakour Abdel Samad offered contrasting interpretations of the roots of the Nile dispute during an appearance on Sky News Arabia’s “News Room” program.

The Core Dispute: Unilateral Operation of the Dam

Abdel Fattah stated that the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam was completed in September 2025 and is now fully operational. He identified the central point of contention as Ethiopia’s insistence on managing the dam unilaterally, without legally binding coordination with Egypt and Sudan.

He explained that international rivers are governed by established laws and norms regulating their use, and that national sovereignty over shared resources is not absolute. According to him, Addis Ababa continues to make independent decisions regarding the dam’s operation and management.

Abdel Fattah criticized recent Ethiopian statements proposing the construction of three additional dams, suggesting the pricing of Nile water, and demanding compensation for water flowing from the Ethiopian Highlands to Egypt. He characterized these positions as provocative toward Cairo and threatening to Egypt’s water security.

Egypt’s Water Deficit and Scarcity Threshold

Citing official figures, Abdel Fattah noted that Egypt receives 55 billion cubic meters of water annually, while its minimum requirement stands at 127 billion cubic meters. He added that per capita water availability in Egypt amounts to 472 cubic meters per year—below the internationally recognized water poverty threshold of 500 cubic meters.

Water as a Political Tool and Allegations of Coercion

Abdel Fattah argued that the crisis extends beyond the dam itself into Ethiopia’s broader effort to politicize the Nile and leverage it to pressure Cairo—either through what he termed “hydro-political coercion” or by linking the Nile issue to Addis Ababa’s pursuit of Red Sea access.

He affirmed that Egypt does not oppose Ethiopia’s right to development and has supported infrastructure and dam projects across Africa. However, Egypt insists such initiatives must not compromise its water security.

On the suspension of negotiations, Abdel Fattah confirmed that Cairo halted talks in December 2023 following a decade of discussions he described as “unproductive.” He accused Ethiopia of using negotiations solely to buy time until the dam’s completion, without committing to any binding agreements.

A Call to Reset Diplomatic Language

In contrast, Abdel Shakour Abdel Samad rejected assigning sole responsibility for the crisis to Ethiopia. He urged Egypt to revise its rhetorical approach toward Addis Ababa and foster a relationship grounded in mutual respect and cooperation among Nile Basin states.

He emphasized that the geography of Egypt, Ethiopia, and Sudan remains unchanged and that the Nile will continue to be a shared resource—making mutual understanding and partnership the only viable path forward. He denied that Ethiopia seeks to monopolize the Nile or impose its decisions on downstream nations.

Abdel Samad contended that framing water issues exclusively through a security lens obstructs agreement. He stressed that Ethiopia continues to invite Egypt back to negotiations, whereas Cairo was the party that declared the freeze.

Joint Projects and Rejected Proposals

Abdel Samad cited an agreement among Nile Basin experts—according to his account—on approximately 36 joint infrastructure initiatives. He suggested that the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam, together with three additional planned dams, could serve as a “safety valve” for all basin countries.

He noted that Ethiopia previously proposed a tripartite arrangement for financing, operating, and managing the Renaissance Dam, allocating 50% to Ethiopia, 30% to Sudan, and 20% to Egypt—a proposal Cairo rejected. He also referenced an invitation from the Ethiopian Prime Minister for Egypt to participate in constructing the three new dams.

With Egypt warning that unilateral management jeopardizes its water security and Ethiopia advocating for shared stewardship and diplomatic recalibration, the resumption of formal negotiations hinges on rebuilding trust and establishing clear, mutually accepted rules for managing the Nile’s shared waters.