From Escalation to De-escalation: Midterm Results Narrow Trump's Options in Iran War

US President Donald Trump faces "difficult choices" in the Iran war after acknowledging that the conflict inflicted heavy losses on Republicans in the midterm elections. The president must now choose between limiting his political and military losses by reaching an agreement with Tehran, or escalating the confrontation and resuming bombing, according to Axios. Neither path appears free of challenges.

The US outlet noted that returning to war would be "largely unpopular," potentially keeping fuel prices high without guaranteeing better military outcomes. Conversely, negotiations could face obstacles if Iran refuses to make concessions or raises its demands, leveraging what it may perceive as Trump's political weakness following the Republican electoral defeat.

A third option, described by presidential aides as "strangulation," involves maintaining the status quo through continued naval blockades and tightened economic sanctions. This aims to keep the Iranian regime under sustained pressure while testing its willingness to reach a deal. However, this path may take months before yielding results.

Political calculations pressuring Trump
Trump stated for weeks that he would end the war one way or another after the elections. Axios quoted a former advisor saying, "Losing the midterms is one thing, but Trump doesn't want to look like a loser twice." The source indicated that this dilemma has left even his closest aides uncertain about the president's next move.

The outlet considered that US Vice President JD Vance "introduced a new political factor into Trump's calculations" after attributing the Republicans' congressional election defeat to the war on Iran in a notable statement on Wednesday morning.

Vance wrote on X: "The reason we lost is the war. The President himself said so last night. If you want to argue that the war was worth it, and losing the Senate for the next six years was worth it, go ahead... But everyone knows why we lost. And any honest discussion about the next step must start from this point."

Vance also argued that the relationship between the United States and Israel represents a serious political burden for Republicans.

For his part, Trump told reporters on Wednesday that Vance's analysis was "largely correct" because the war led to higher fuel prices, but he affirmed he would wage it again if necessary, stating: "We had no choice. We cannot allow Iran to possess a nuclear weapon."

When asked about when the war would end, Trump replied: "Whenever I want. But it must be done correctly, because they cannot be allowed to have a nuclear weapon."

Disagreements within Trump's inner circle
Over the past few months, Vance led a faction within "Trump's circle" advocating for a deal with Iran to end the war.

Axios cited sources stating that Vance privately accused Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu of being "wrong about everything" related to Iran.

Vance warned that the war faced broad public rejection and could cost Republicans the election, according to the sources. The site noted that most senior officials surrounding Trump shared this view, but the president remained inclined to resume the war.

At one point, Trump considered launching strikes on Iran before the midterm elections, at a time when Netanyahu was pressing him to take such action.

The US president decided to wait, but endorsed Netanyahu in last week's Israeli elections despite advice from senior counselors against doing so.

Military preparations and diplomatic moves
Meanwhile, the US military is completing preparations for the possibility of resuming large-scale military operations against Iran, including sending additional military capabilities to the region, Axios reported citing US officials.

In a parallel track, Qatari mediators are working to secure approval from the United States and Iran for a "draft agreement" that would prevent a return to fighting and possibly allow direct talks to resume in the coming days, according to regional sources.

Axios reported that mediators asked White House officials before the elections what step Trump might take if Republicans lost, but the president's advisors could not confirm whether he would choose escalation or negotiation.

A US official said: "We told everyone that we first wanted to see how the elections went for us."

Tehran celebrates "Trump's defeat"
In response, Iranian officials celebrated "Trump's defeat" in the midterm elections, viewing it as "proof that their country is gaining ground in the war."

Secretary of Iran's Supreme National Security Council Mohsen Rezaei wrote on X that "the Iranian people inflicted a strategic defeat on Trump on the battlefield and in the Strait of Hormuz, and a political defeat in Washington," adding that "Americans are bearing the bill for the war," warning that "anyone who confronts Iran will pay the price, from the battlefield to their doorstep."

Axios quoted diplomats involved in mediation efforts, Trump's advisors, and Middle East experts as saying that Iran's celebration of the electoral defeat could push the US president back into war.

Ali Vaez, Deputy Director of the Middle East and North Africa Program at the International Crisis Group, told the site that "Tehran may err if it interprets Trump's political weakness as military weakness and overplays its hand," adding that Iran's wisest option is to "seize the opportunity for a deal while Washington remains willing."

However, Trump may choose to maintain the "no war, no deal" equation, continuing the status quo instead of resuming military operations or reaching a settlement.

According to Axios, CIA Director John Ratcliffe, Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent, and other advisors want Trump to give the naval blockade and economic pressure campaign more time to achieve their goals, tightening the squeeze on Iran.

The site concluded that "there is no easy path allowing Trump to declare mission accomplished in Iran, as the available options—whether resuming war, negotiating, or continuing pressure—carry political and military risks."