Israel Increases Surveillance on IRGC Movements Ahead of Possible US Strike

Intelligence and diplomatic sources in the United States have revealed that Israel has heightened its surveillance of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps' (IRGC) aerospace forces in western Iran. This follows indications of redeployment of missile launch and communication units near Kermanshah, Ilam, and Qasr-e Shirin.

These developments occur amid assessments that the Iranian regime might launch missiles toward Israel in an attempt to disrupt President Donald Trump's calculations before finalizing the scale of the forthcoming American military operation.

An American intelligence source reported that recent hours have seen military vehicles and communication units affiliated with the IRGC moving to various locations within Kermanshah and Ilam provinces. Additionally, mobile launch platforms have been observed near roads leading to Qasr-e Shirin and areas adjacent to the Iraqi border.

The source clarified that these movements do not signify a new Iranian capability but rather follow accumulated losses inflicted on command and launch networks. They reflect efforts by the IRGC to redistribute its remaining launch platforms away from previously targeted sites while maintaining the option to fire a missile salvo toward Israel if Iranian leadership chooses to escalate the confrontation.

American and Israeli intelligence agencies have detected increased activity of the IRGC aerospace force's communication units near Kermanshah, coupled with nocturnal movements along routes connecting Ilam to western regions. This has prompted Israeli security institutions to elevate aerial and intelligence monitoring over these areas.

Joint American and Israeli assessments suggest the Iranian regime is seeking a move that would disrupt US-Israeli coordination and create a new crisis before President Trump's decision, especially as US strikes continue and pressure mounts on IRGC institutions inside Iran.

A US diplomat familiar with security communications with Israel within the National Security Council stated that Washington and Tel Aviv have recently discussed how to respond to any Iranian missile launches preceding Trump's decision. Washington has urged maintaining the highest level of air defense readiness and avoiding giving Iran the opportunity to control the timing of conflict escalation.

The source told the news outlet that discussions focused on the potential scale of an Iranian attack and the types of targets that might be struck. The United States is prepared to support interception efforts and provide Israel with intelligence to identify launch origins within western Iran.

The US administration aims to keep control of the next phase firmly in President Trump's hands, as a broad Israeli response before a US decision could alter operational sequencing and allow the IRGC to reposition its forces on a new front.

Washington has informed Israel that damage to strategic facilities or casualties would justify a direct Israeli response. Current communications emphasize preventing Iran from using a limited attack to provoke Israel into an open campaign.

These exchanges followed President Trump's announcement that he is close to deciding on a broad strike against Iran, confirming that military preparations are complete. The specifics of the operation's scale and form remain under consideration within the White House. He also indicated the possibility of Israeli participation if requested by Washington.

Meanwhile, Israeli security agencies have raised their alert level to prepare for a possible missile launch from western Iran. Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has held consultations with military and security leaders to discuss the nature, limits, and timing of a coordinated response with Washington.

American security analyst Barry Donadio noted that the movement of IRGC units and platforms toward western Iran reflects increasing pressure on Iranian leadership following expanded US strikes.

Donadio explained that launching missiles toward Israel at this stage might be an attempt to impose a new dynamic on Washington and Tel Aviv before President Trump finalizes the next operational phase.

He added that any direct Iranian assault on Israel would provoke a harsher response and provide Washington with further justification to intensify military pressure, especially as the US currently possesses significant capabilities to support Israeli defenses and track launch sites within Iran.

Donadio also highlighted that Tehran’s calculations become increasingly risky as the IRGC attempts to offset recent losses through escalation.

Israeli preparations focus on the Arrow and David's Sling missile defense systems, alongside heightened readiness of the Air Force to monitor potential launch areas within Kermanshah and Ilam. Direct communications with the US Central Command continue.

Israel seeks to prevent the Iranian regime from achieving a political gain by setting a new timeline for conflict, after the IRGC failed to halt US strikes or protect its command and launch networks.

Intelligence assessments reveal the extent of the dilemma facing the Iranian regime, which may be compelled by US pressure to take military action that would increase its losses and provide President Trump with additional grounds to expand strikes. Israel continues to monitor western Iran closely and prepares to contain any IRGC attempts to impose a new round of conflict on its terms.