Military Spending Under Pressure: Priorities Crisis Widens in Tehran

Open disagreement over the value of uranium enrichment has opened a new front in internal conflicts within Iran's political institutions, following voices close to President Masoud Pezeshkian raising concerns about the costs of the nuclear program, missiles, and drones within calculations of national security and economic stability—amid a war that has drained state resources, driven up inflation, and reduced foreign trade.

The dispute intensified in recent days after Vice President Jafar Qaempa-nah spoke of the need to account for the price the country pays for its strategic goals, followed by intervention from Youssef Pezeshkian, the president’s son and media advisor, who affirmed that Iran’s survival is not tied to enrichment and that continued nuclear, missile, and drone programs must be evaluated based on national interest and their cost.

The statements triggered backlash from hardline factions, while Yadullah Jowani, deputy head of political affairs at the Revolutionary Guard, defended enrichment, missile programs, and regional policy.

The hardline newspaper Kayhan labeled proposals emerging from around the presidency as "concessions," signaling that the conflict has expanded even to the very concept of security and institutional priorities after six months of war.

Budget Files Reveal Deepening Rift

A senior Iranian opposition source familiar with communications among officials and political figures in Tehran told Al-Araby News that recent statements by Jafar Qaempa-nah and Youssef Pezeshkian followed disagreements during government meetings in recent weeks over the scale of resources needed to address electricity shortages, currency crises, wage issues, and reconstruction of civilian infrastructure damaged during the war.

Government circles have focused criticism on the continued rise in military and nuclear commitments at a time when treasury capacity to fund domestic needs is declining.

According to the source, government figures raised estimates related to expected costs of repairing the energy sector, supporting essential goods, and settling financial arrears across state institutions—only to face high demands from military bodies seeking compensation for losses suffered by missiles, drones, and facilities damaged during the war.

The issue turned political when government-affiliated figures argued that continuing resource allocation under previous priorities would increase fiscal pressure in the coming months.

The source notes that the debate has reached the enrichment file itself, as figures aligned with Pezeshkian’s circle pushed for assessing the financial and political cost of restoring pre-war activity levels at damaged nuclear facilities, while officials linked to the Revolutionary Guard and institutions close to the Supreme Leader refused to include enrichment or missile programs in any list of priorities open to reevaluation.

The source points out that these positions explain the intensity of responses to Qaempa-nah and Pezeshkian’s remarks in recent days.

According to the source, Pezeshkian’s team has limited room for maneuver in nuclear and military matters, and its current influence lies mainly in highlighting the economic consequences of these policies during government meetings and budget-related deliberations.

The public emergence of this conflict reflects growing anxiety among civilian officials about the impact of sustained military spending, currency collapse, and energy crisis on domestic stability, while strategic decisions regarding enrichment and missiles remain firmly tied to the Supreme Leader and the surrounding security and military institutions.

These developments unfold amid an accelerating economic crisis. Pezeshkian stated that foreign trade has declined by about 35% due to war and sanctions, while annual inflation has reached approximately 66%, and the rial has hit record highs exceeding two million rials per dollar.

On Tuesday, Central Bank Governor Abdolnasser Hemmati announced the bank’s readiness to inject up to two billion dollars to stabilize the foreign exchange market.

On the previous day, Head of the Judiciary Gholam-Hossein Mohseni Ejei declared increased readiness of security, police, and intelligence agencies to confront any disturbances linked to economic deterioration.

Washington Watching the Rift

A U.S. source close to the White House and familiar with U.S. policy toward Iran told Al-Araby News that the administration expects intensified sanctions and financial pressure in the coming phase to deepen internal divisions within Iran’s institutions over resource allocation and prioritization between military, nuclear programs, and domestic economic needs.

According to the source, current U.S. assessments focus on how declining oil revenues and difficulty accessing foreign currencies will make protecting Revolutionary Guard funding and the nuclear program increasingly costly for other state institutions, especially as energy, support, wage, and infrastructure rehabilitation needs rise.

The United States is working to increase pressure on direct income sources reaching the Revolutionary Guard and on intermediaries and companies assisting it in financing activities outside traditional government channels.

The source added that the administration is awaiting clearer signals in the near term on how these pressures are affecting relations between the government and military institutions, particularly given the growing public criticism of the cost of enrichment and missile programs.

Washington believes that continued resource decline will intensify debates over priorities, placing institutions linked to the Revolutionary Guard in greater competition for funding amid rising social and economic pressures on the regime.

This comes as the U.S. Department of the Treasury launched a new round of secondary sanctions, stating they will expand weekly to tighten financial isolation on Tehran, while Pezeshkian reiterated his desire to reach a deal ending the war during his meeting with Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi on Monday.