New Target Bank Without Geographic Restrictions: Why Does Iran Threaten European Capitals?

Iran's announcement that it has lifted restrictions on the range of its ballistic missiles, after years of publicly adhering to a 2,000-kilometer ceiling, has raised military questions beyond the Middle East. These concerns focus on the targets Tehran seeks to place within its threat radius, its actual capacity to develop long-range missiles without sacrificing accuracy and warhead size.

The announcement was made by IRGC spokesperson Hossein Mohabi, following directives from Supreme Leader Mojtaba Khamenei to respond to US and Israeli threats without geographic restrictions and to update the military target bank.

However, Mohabi did not reveal a new missile exceeding 2,000 kilometers in range or provide test results proving such capability. This led the Associated Press to confirm that Iran is not known to possess operational systems exceeding the previous limit, despite declaring its abandonment.

Why now?
The decision comes in the wake of military confrontations where Iranian air defense systems, missile launch platforms, and production facilities suffered US and Israeli strikes, reigniting questions about the effectiveness of Iran's missile deterrence.

According to a study published by the "Iran Watch" project in January 2026, Tehran focused throughout recent years on improving missile accuracy and combat readiness rather than expanding ranges, a policy solidified in 2015 with the adoption of the 2,000-kilometer ceiling.

This range allowed targeting Israel and US bases across large parts of the Middle East but did not cover all US military installations deployed outside the region.

Mohabi's statements reveal that previous restrictions were tied to political decisions, noting that the late Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei sometimes ordered a halt to range increases while allowing expansion at other stages.

According to "Iran International," the announcement coincides with ongoing fears of renewed military confrontation, while Tehran has provided no evidence that lifting restrictions accompanied the introduction of new weapons into service.

The decision allows Iranian leadership to expand the scope of declared threats but does not automatically address losses to the missile infrastructure or problems related to production and guidance.

Diego Garcia and Europe
The US-British base Diego Garcia in the Indian Ocean tops the list of sites that have reignited debate over the true range of Iranian missiles. In March 2026, US and British officials spoke of two missiles launched toward the base, located approximately 4,000 kilometers from Iran. The British account reported one falling short of the target and the other being intercepted, while Tehran denied responsibility.

In a study published by the Stockholm International Peace Research Institute (SIPRI) in April, researcher Markus Schiller explained that if this account is accurate, it could mean Iran possesses the capability to launch missiles covering distances approaching 4,000 kilometers, but it does not prove a reliable capability to hit distant military targets.

The study indicates that increased range could place European capitals, up to London, within the theoretical range of some Iranian missiles. However, Schiller believes the symbolic value of this threat may outweigh its military significance, especially given European missile defenses and the difficulty of hitting specific targets at these distances.

There is no public evidence that Iran possesses an intercontinental ballistic missile capable of reaching US territory.

Khorramshahr: The Hardest Test
Military studies place the "Khorramshahr" family at the forefront of Iranian systems that could exceed traditional ranges.

The American Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS) notes that Iran displayed, in 2019, a version of "Khorramshahr" with a smaller re-entry vehicle, with estimates suggesting a range of up to 3,000 kilometers compared to the announced 2,000 kilometers for basic versions.

The "Iran Watch" project also clarifies that France, Germany, and Britain submitted estimates to the UN in 2019 stating that one version of the missile could reach 3,000 kilometers with a lighter payload.

Schiller views that "Khorramshahr" could theoretically reach about 3,800 kilometers with an extremely light warhead, but this weakens the potential strike effect even if the missile reaches the target area.

The solid-fuel "Sejjil" system also stands out, which CSIS estimates at around 2,000 kilometers, though the center provides no evidence of an operational version with a range approaching 4,000 kilometers.

The SIPRI study indicates that technologies from Iranian satellite launch vehicles, including "Simorgh," provide a technological basis for developing longer ranges, without implying the readiness of derived military ballistic missiles.

A Arsenal with Many Names
In analyzing this development, Iranian affairs researcher Mohammed Saleh Al-Fatih highlights the issue of multiple names for Iranian missiles versus technical similarities among many of their systems.

Al-Fatih told "Erem News" that missiles like "Haj Qasem," "Fattah 1," "Fattah 2," and "Kheybar Shekan" operate within similar ranges between 1,300 and 1,500 kilometers using solid fuel, while systems like "Emad," "Qadr," "Khorramshahr," and "Sejjil" hover around 2,000 kilometers despite differing characteristics. He noted similarities between "Dezful" and "Qasem Basir," arguing that numerous names do not necessarily imply independent technological development.

This observation aligns with "Iran Watch" classifying several systems as derivatives of older missile families, although some modifications include actual improvements in fuel, guidance, and warheads.

This comparison underscores the importance of distinguishing between announcing a new version, achieving a proven leap in range, accuracy, and operational capability.

Accuracy Before Distance
The accuracy problem remains the most sensitive challenge facing Iran's range expansion. According to CSIS, the potential error margin in some older configurations of the "Khorramshahr" missile may reach about 1,500 meters, while other sources offer better estimates for some versions, lacking sufficient independent tests to determine actual performance.

The SIPRI study indicates that hitting a narrow base like Diego Garcia becomes more difficult when approaching a 4,000-kilometer range, especially if accompanied by reducing warhead weight.

The "Iran Watch" project also documented damage to solid rocket fuel production facilities during the March war, adding industrial challenges to technical issues. Thus, canceling the range ceiling gives Iran wider space to declare threats but does not prove possession of systems capable of reliably and repeatedly reaching Europe and hitting specific military targets.

System Inflation Exacerbates Military Complexities
Researcher Mohammed Saleh Al-Fatih links the inflation of Iranian missile names to technical and logistical complexities within the IRGC, explaining that presenting similar systems as independent projects does not necessarily achieve qualitative military development.

He pointed out that differences in platforms, operational requirements, and equipment increase the difficulty of managing the arsenal during wars, especially when launch platforms, production, and storage facilities are struck.

Al-Fatih noted that the survival of the missiles themselves does not guarantee usability if their launch means or essential components are destroyed, considering that variety may become a weakness rather than a source of superiority.

He also linked the proliferation of missile projects to expanded budgets, contracts, and interest networks within military institutions, warning that propaganda accompanying new system launches may hide issues related to efficiency, spending, and readiness.

This reading gains importance with the decision to lift the range ceiling, highlighting the need to measure Iranian capabilities by proven combat performance, not by the number of missile names or specifications announced by Tehran.

Erem News