Record High Looms on the Sahel.. Unprecedented Expansion of Al-Qaeda and ISIS

New figures compiled by Acled, a conflict monitoring organization, indicate that violence linked to extremist groups in the African Sahel is heading toward historic levels following a series of widespread attacks carried out by groups affiliated with Al-Qaeda and ISIS.

These statistics highlight the continued expansion of Al-Qaeda’s activities across parts of Africa, coinciding with the 25th anniversary of the September 11 attacks conducted by the group on targets in Washington and New York, at a time when its relative influence has declined in other parts of the world.

Rising Attacks in the Sahel

Acled’s data, an acronym for Armed Conflict Location & Event Data, focuses on Mali, Burkina Faso, and Niger—regions that serve as a major hub for armed activity in the Sahel, according to a report by The Guardian.

The number of violent incidents involving terrorist groups in the three countries rose from 63 incidents in 2016 to 2,845 incidents in 2025. The organization recorded 2,145 incidents since the start of this year, suggesting the annual total could exceed 3,000 if current trends continue.

While global terrorism-related fatalities have declined to their lowest level since 2008, the Sahel region has experienced a sharp increase in deaths.

A report from the 2026 Global Peace Index noted that the region continues to record one of the highest death tolls from terrorism worldwide, stating that the United Nations documented over 9,000 deaths from security incidents in Mali, Burkina Faso, and Niger during 2025.

Boundaries of External Threat

In April, Mali witnessed a large-scale attack carried out by the Al-Qaeda-linked group Ansar Dine, in cooperation with the Front for the Liberation of Azawad, targeting strategic towns, government forces, and Russian fighters supporting them using ambushes, car bombs, drones, and airstrikes.

The attacks resulted in the killing of Mali’s defense minister and head of military intelligence, targeted an international airport, and enabled armed groups to seize control of the strategic city of Kidal—a symbolic setback for the ruling military council.

In Burkina Faso, Ansar Dine claimed responsibility for more than 130 attacks in 2026, while at least 17 attacks were recorded in Niger, where the Islamic State in the Greater Sahara remains more active.

Olaf Lasing, an analyst at the Berlin-based Konrad Adenauer Foundation, said that Al-Qaeda and ISIS-affiliated groups in the Sahel control vast areas but are locally rooted, adding: "No single attack planned in the Sahel was aimed at Europe or the United States."

"Marginalized"

In East Africa, the Al-Qaeda-linked group al-Shabaab remains one of the deadliest militant organizations, with Acled recording over 10,000 deaths linked to violence it has carried out over the past 18 months.

Despite the growing reach of armed groups across Africa, analysts emphasize this does not necessarily signal a return of Al-Qaeda’s capacity to carry out large-scale foreign operations as it did 25 years ago.

An UN report described the group’s leadership as "marginalized," noting that its ability and intentions to conduct external operations remain "unclear."