Shock of Israeli Ballot Boxes: Vote Count Puts Government Key in Hands of Arab Lists

Partial results from the Israeli elections revealed new complexities facing the formation of the next government, after the high turnout of Arab voters increased the parliamentary weight of their lists and reduced the ability of competing political camps to reach a majority of 61 deputies on their own, amid preparations for party consultations preceding President Isaac Herzog's assignment of a candidate to form the government.

Preliminary count data showed on Wednesday that Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu's camp secured approximately 55 seats, compared to 50 for the opposition and 15 for the Arab lists, while exit polls had granted the latter between 17 and 19 seats.

Total participation reached 77.7%, the highest since 1999, while Channel 12 estimated Arab participation at around 80%.

A US diplomatic source involved in monitoring Israeli political developments at the Bureau of Near Eastern Affairs at the State Department told "Erem News" that current estimates place the positions of Arab parties at the forefront of issues that will determine the course of upcoming consultations, especially with the widening gap between the number of seats won by the opposition and its ability to convert them into a governing majority.

The source explained that political contacts made by US officials with figures from Israeli parties addressed the possibility that no camp would secure a majority, and that some Israeli parties indicated the potential for seeking limited parliamentary arrangements with Arab parties, without reaching prior understandings regarding government participation.

He noted that Washington received varying estimates from Israeli political entities regarding seat distribution in the hours following the closing of ballot boxes, and that US interest is currently focused on the positions that blocs will announce when presidential consultations begin, more than on statements made by their leaders during the election campaign.

Opposition Contacts and Arab Seats
According to the US source, one issue raised within the opposition concerns the distinction between forming a governing coalition including Arab parties and obtaining parliamentary support from them during the confidence vote, with declared political objections to both options among some parties nominated for government participation.

He indicated that information circulating among US diplomats speaks of Gadi Eisenkot's circle being interested in knowing the limits that Naftali Bennett and Avigdor Lieberman might accept in any understanding related to external support for the government, and that exploratory contacts focus on political positions before entering into the distribution of ministerial portfolios.

He added that contacts whose contents Americans reviewed did not result, until Wednesday morning, in an agreement uniting opposition parties and Arab lists, and that the positions of the parties remain far apart regarding the nature and duration of the required understanding, particularly concerning budget votes and essential legislation.

These findings come after Mansour Abbas, head of the "United Arab List," expressed hope that the opposition and his party would secure 61 seats, while Eisenkot announced his pursuit of forming a new government, and Netanyahu affirmed his adherence to a right-wing government. Bennett and Lieberman had previously expressed their refusal to cooperate with "Ra'am" in government.

The source noted that discussions do not involve dealing with Arab parties as a single political bloc; positions differ between "Ra'am" and the Joint List regarding participation in governance arrangements, in addition to variations in their demands related to the state budget, civil conditions, and policies toward Palestinians.

He clarified that one formula circulated preliminarily involves specific understandings for parliamentary voting, without mutual commitment to supporting all government policies, but he confirmed that available US information does not indicate the adoption of this formula by any of the concerned parties.

Presidential Assignment and Netanyahu's Options
Regarding assignment consultations, the source reported that political contacts monitored by Washington address the number of blocs ready to recommend Eisenkot or Netanyahu to Herzog, and the extent to which the opposition can present a unified nomination, given the lack of a clear majority for either camp.

He said that the US side has not received reliable indications confirming that the Israeli president has settled his position, and that information regarding his preference for one candidate remains within the scope of circulating political estimates, pending the completion of counting and the announcement of official recommendations.

He added that Washington's contacts with Israeli parties do not include proposing the formation of a specific coalition, but rather focus on understanding the trends of political forces and the continuity of government institutions during the transition phase.

Partial count results granted Likud approximately 27 seats, compared to about 22 for the "Yesh Atid" party led by Eisenkot, while remaining votes, including special envelopes, await counting before finalizing the seat distribution. Official results are scheduled to be published on November 4.

Thus, Israeli parties enter a negotiation phase where assignment recommendations intersect with possibilities of forming a minority government or reaching limited parliamentary understandings, while the positions of Arab parties remain one of the fundamental elements in determining the options available to both camps.